Nowadays, the influence of negative factors on the fiscal system has been strengthening at both the country and regional levels. In particular, income differentiation and fiscal capacity are increasing, inflation rate exceeds the target, negative trends of growing household debt and enterprise unprofitability are observed. Such factors are not fully considered by existing diagnostic methodologies for analysing fiscal and economic security indicators and threats. Thus, in order to adjust stabilisation decisions and implement relevant fiscal policies, it is necessary to update these approaches, especially in regions. The paper examines key definitions of threats and risks to regional fiscal security and presents the author’s classification of threats according to the incidence. Based on the analysed approaches to threat assessment and a proposed diagnostic mechanism, the research developed a method for diagnosing threats to regional fiscal security by bringing the actual values of indicators to standardised points. In addition, to determine the danger level of threats, indicator values were distributed by security zones. The suggested methodology, which includes 12 indicators, was used to analyse the fiscal security of the Komi Republic. As a result, significant threats to the regional fiscal security were identified in the economic, budget, tax, investment, innovation, price, banking, corporate and social spheres. Baseline data were obtained from Federal State Statistics Service, Federal Customs Service of Russia, Federal Taxation Service of Russia and the Bank of Russia. The proposed methodology is an effective diagnostic tool for analysing threats to fiscal security on the basis of important regional indicators. Federal and local authorities can use this particular method for monitoring regional fiscal systems.
The article presents the characteristics of the financial security of the regional banking sector, examines the threats to the financial state of the banking system in the region. The author's methodology for conducting a point assessment of financial security is proposed, based on the indicative method and the use of the nor-malizing function, as well as the distribution of ratings depending on the points awarded for six security zones. The method is tested on the example of the Republic of Komi. Significant threats to the financial security of the region have been identified, and recommendations for their elimination have been proposed. The meth-odology is proposed to be used when the state authorities and the Bank of Russia monitor the state of the banking sector in the region.
The article presents the author’s methodology for assessing the risks of the financial and budgetary security of the region, based on the synthesis of the indicative approach, the minimax method and the method of normalizing indicators. The purpose of the article is to develop a new approach to diagnosing threats to financial and budgetary security, assessing the level of risk of these threats at the mesolevel. During the research, such methods as analysis, synthesis, indicative analysis, minimax method, normalization method were used. The article discusses approaches to the content of risk management activities, examines in detail the issue of the concept of risk, its essential features. Further, the author examines the existing methods for assessing risks in the field of financial and fiscal security, on the basis of which the author proposes a threat-oriented approach to risk assessment, the author examines the main threats to financial and fiscal security that have become more relevant after the introduction of new Western sanctions against Russia against the backdrop of a special military an operation aimed at the denazification and demilitarization of Ukraine, as well as the protection of the population of Donbass from attacks by neo-Nazi formations. To assess the risk of implementation of each of the threats, indicators were selected, and the average threshold value, minimum and maximum threshold levels were determined. In total, it was proposed to use 10 indicators, with the help of which, on the basis of the developed methodology, an assessment of the risks of financial and budgetary security of the Kirov region was carried out. During the diagnostics, the risks of financial and budgetary security of the Kirov region were identified. The methodology proposed in the article can be used by public authorities in order to increase the efficiency of risk management of the financial and budgetary security of the region.
The article discusses and analyzes the approaches available in science to the formation of threshold values of indicators of economic security. The author conducts a comparative study of the existing methods for determining threshold values, examines the advantages and disadvantages of each of the approaches. On the basis of the study, the threshold values for seven indicators of the security of the economic develop-ment of the region are substantiated. Further, the indicative system presented in the work is tested on the example of the Komi Republic using the indicators highlighted by the author and their threshold values using a specially developed technique based on the synthesis of the minimax approach and the indicative method, diagnostics of the state of security of economic development is carried out, the main threats arising in this area are highlighted. The application of the approach proposed in the work to the formation of threshold values of indicators, as well as the methodology used to assess threats, made it possible to diagnose threats that pose a significant danger to the development of the regional economy. The results obtained can be used by public authorities when they carry out activities to monitor the state of the region's economy.
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