The second version of the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) was made operational at NCEP in March 2011. This version has upgrades to nearly all aspects of the data assimilation and forecast model components of the system. A coupled reanalysis was made over a 32-yr period , which provided the initial conditions to carry out a comprehensive reforecast over 29 years . This was done to obtain consistent and stable calibrations, as well as skill estimates for the operational subseasonal and seasonal predictions at NCEP with CFSv2. The operational implementation of the full system ensures a continuity of the climate record and provides a valuable up-to-date dataset to study many aspects of predictability on the seasonal and subseasonal scales. Evaluation of the reforecasts show that the CFSv2 increases the length of skillful MJO forecasts from 6 to 17 days (dramatically improving subseasonal forecasts), nearly doubles the skill of seasonal forecasts of 2-m temperatures over the United States, and significantly improves global SST forecasts over its predecessor. The CFSv2 not only provides greatly improved guidance at these time scales but also creates many more products for subseasonal and seasonal forecasting with an extensive set of retrospective forecasts for users to calibrate their forecast products. These retrospective and real-time operational forecasts will be used by a wide community of users in their decision making processes in areas such as water management for rivers and agriculture, transportation, energy use by utilities, wind and other sustainable energy, and seasonal prediction of the hurricane season.

The Climate Forecast System (CFS), the fully coupled ocean–land–atmosphere dynamical seasonal prediction system, which became operational at NCEP in August 2004, is described and evaluated in this paper. The CFS provides important advances in operational seasonal prediction on a number of fronts. For the first time in the history of U.S. operational seasonal prediction, a dynamical modeling system has demonstrated a level of skill in forecasting U.S. surface temperature and precipitation that is comparable to the skill of the statistical methods used by the NCEP Climate Prediction Center (CPC). This represents a significant improvement over the previous dynamical modeling system used at NCEP. Furthermore, the skill provided by the CFS spatially and temporally complements the skill provided by the statistical tools. The availability of a dynamical modeling tool with demonstrated skill should result in overall improvement in the operational seasonal forecasts produced by CPC. The atmospheric component of the CFS is a lower-resolution version of the Global Forecast System (GFS) that was the operational global weather prediction model at NCEP during 2003. The ocean component is the GFDL Modular Ocean Model version 3 (MOM3). There are several important improvements inherent in the new CFS relative to the previous dynamical forecast system. These include (i) the atmosphere–ocean coupling spans almost all of the globe (as opposed to the tropical Pacific only); (ii) the CFS is a fully coupled modeling system with no flux correction (as opposed to the previous uncoupled “tier-2” system, which employed multiple bias and flux corrections); and (iii) a set of fully coupled retrospective forecasts covering a 24-yr period (1981–2004), with 15 forecasts per calendar month out to nine months into the future, have been produced with the CFS. These 24 years of fully coupled retrospective forecasts are of paramount importance to the proper calibration (bias correction) of subsequent operational seasonal forecasts. They provide a meaningful a priori estimate of model skill that is critical in determining the utility of the real-time dynamical forecast in the operational framework. The retrospective dataset also provides a wealth of information for researchers to study interactive atmosphere–land–ocean processes.

The North American Multimodel Ensemble prediction experiment is described, and forecast quality and methods for accessing digital and graphical data from the model are discussed.

The absolute integrated fluxes that we obtained (Paper I) for 34 H ii regions, with Galactocentric distances RG in the 6.6–17.7 kpc range, in the emission lines [O ii] λλ3726 and 3729, [O iii] λλ4363 and 5007, He iλ5876, Hα and Hβ, are analysed to derive the extinctions, the electron densities and temperatures, the ionic abundances O+/H+, O++/H+ and He+/H+ and the O/H abundances. The electron temperature has been derived from the [O iii] λ4363/λ5007 ratio in six H ii regions with RG between 6.6 and 14.8 kpc. These new measurements of Te, which are in good agreement with those from radio recombination lines, widen the RG range for which reliable Te measurements exist. Combining our new Te([O iii]) results with the radio values, we obtain the following temperature relationship: TeK]=(372±38)RG+4260±350. The O+/H+ and O++/H+ abundances have been obtained assuming a two‐temperature H ii region model. Our O/H relationship for 5 kpc

Aims. We present spatially resolved high-resolution spectrophotometric data for the planetary nebulae PB 8, NGC 2867, and PB 6. We have analyzed two knots in NGC 2867 and PB 6 and one in PB 8. The three nebulae are ionized by [WC] type nuclei: early [WO] for PB 6 and NGC 2867 and [WC 5-6] in the case of PB 8. Our aim is to study the behavior of the abundance discrepancy problem (ADF) in this type of planetary nebula. Methods. We measured a large number of optical recombination (ORL) and collisionally excited lines (CEL), from different ionization stages (many more than in any previous work), thus, we were able to derive physical conditions from many different diagnostic procedures. We determined ionic abundances from the available collisionally excited and recombination lines. Based on both sets of ionic abundances, we derived total chemical abundances in the nebulae using suitable ionization correction factors. Results. From CELs, we have found abundances typical of Galactic disk planetary nebulae. Moderate ADF(O ++ ) were found for PB 8 (2.57) and NGC 2867 (1.63). For NGC 2867, abundances from ORLs are higher but still consistent with Galactic disk planetary nebulae. On the contrary, PB 8 presents a very high O/H ratio from ORLs. A high C/O was obtained from ORLs for NGC 2867; this ratio is similar to C/O obtained from CELs and with the chemical composition of the wind of the central star, indicating that there was no further C-enrichment in the star, relative to O, after the nebular material ejection. On the contrary, we found C/O < 1 in PB 8. Interestingly, we obtain (C/O) ORLs /(C/O) CELs < 1 in PB 8 and NGC 2867; this added to the similarity between the heliocentric velocities measured in [O iii] and O ii lines for our three objects argue against the presence of H-deficient metal-rich knots coming from a late thermal pulse event.