Aims
Automated coronary total plaque volume (TPV) quantification derived from coronary computed tomographic angiography (CTA) datasets provide exact and reliable assessment of calcified and non-calcified coronary atherosclerosis burden. The aim of this analysis was to investigate the long-term predictive value of TPV.
Methods and results
TPV was quantified in 1577 patients undergoing coronary CTA and cardiovascular events were collected during 10.5 years (interquartile range 6.0–11.4) of follow-up. The study endpoint comprised cardiac death and acute coronary syndrome and occurred in 59 (3.7%) patients. Coronary TPV provided additive prognostic value over clinical risk assessed with the Morise Score and coronary artery disease severity (rise in C-index from 0.744 to 0.769, P = 0.03). A category-based reclassification approach combining the Morise Score and TPV revealed superior risk stratification (categorical net reclassification improvement: 0.48 with 95% CI 0.13–0.68, P < 0.001) and resulted in reclassification of 800 (51%) patients compared with the Morise Score alone. The 10-year risk for the study endpoint was 0.6% (95% CI 0–1.3) for patients classified as low risk (n = 807), 4.8% (95% CI 2.4–7.2) for patients at intermediate risk (n = 400), and 10.3% (95% CI 6.6–13.9) for patients at high risk (n = 370) using the combined reclassification approach.
Conclusion
Quantification of TPV from coronary CTA permits an improved 10-year cardiovascular risk stratification.
Background
Automated plaque quantification derived from coronary CT angiogragphy (CCTA) datasets provides exact and reliable assessment of coronary atherosclerosis burden.
Purpose
To investigate the long-term predictive value of quantified coronary plaque volume (PV) in comparison to Calcium Score (CACS).
Methods
Dedicated software was used to quantify PV in 1577 patients. A combination of cardiac death and acute coronary syndrome was used as endpoint. Incremental prognostic value was tested with c-statistics and continuous net reclassification improvement (NRI). The Morise Score was used to summarize patients clinical risk profile.
Results
Patients were followed for 10.4 years. The combined endpoint occurred in 59 patients, of whom 36 suffered from cardiac death, 18 had non-fatal myocardial infarction and 5 presented with unstable angina requiring revascularisation. The additive predictive value of PV and CACS was tested against a baseline model (c-index 0.741) including clinical risk and the number of diseased coronary segments (segment-Involvement score). While PV provided additive prognostic value (rise in c-index to 0.763, p=0.01 and NRI 0.247, p=0.03), CACS did not (c-index 0.749, p=0.2 and NRI 0.162, p=0.12).
A threshold of 110.5 mm3, which was established by a previous analysis of our group, provided excellent separation of patients into low (no PV), intermediate (PV <110.5 mm3) and high (PV >110.5 mm3) risk categories based upon quantified PV (see attached Figure).
Conclusion
Quantification of PV from CCTA datasets provides excellent prognostic information on long-term follow-up.
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