Background
The basic reproduction number (R0) is the number of cases directly caused by an infected individual throughout his infectious period. R0 is used to determine the ability of a disease to spread within a given population. The reproduction number (R) represents the transmissibility of a disease.
Objectives
We aimed to calculate the R0 of Coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) in Sri Lanka and to describe the variation of R, with its implications to the prevention and control of the disease.
Methods
Data was obtained from daily situation reports of the Epidemiology Unit, Sri Lanka and a compartmental model was used to calculate the R0 using estimated model parameters.
This value was corroborated by using two more methods, the exponential growth rate method and maximum likelihood method to obtain a better estimate for R0. The variation of R was illustrated using a Bayesian statistical inference-based method.
Results
The R0 calculated by the first model was 1.02 [confidence interval (CI) of 0.75–1.29] with a root mean squared error of 7.72. The exponential growth rate method and the maximum likelihood estimation method yielded an R0 of 0.93 (CI of 0.77–1.10) and a R0 of 1.23 (CI of 0.94–1.57) respectively. The variation of R ranged from 0.69 to 2.20.
Conclusion
The estimated R0 for COVID-19 in Sri Lanka, calculated by three different methods, falls between 0.93 and 1.23, and the transmissibility R has reduced, indicating that measures implemented have achieved a good control of disease.
Background: Lack of feedback to the prescribers might affect the core of the Antibiotic Stewardship Programme (ASP). Point prevalence surveys on antibiotic use and feedback will improve the rational use of antibiotics and prevent the emergence of multidrug-resistant bacteria.
Objectives:We aim to describe the antibiotic use and compliance with standard antibiotic guidelines at selected units in National Hospital, Kandy (NHK).Methods: Data were collected from selected units at NHK. An interviewer-administered questionnaire was used to collect data. All patients who were in the ward at 9 am on the day of the survey were included in the study. Observations were analyzed to find out the rational use of antibiotics.Results: Among 214 patients, 103(48.1%) were on antibiotics. The highest usage was observed in surgical units. The most common antibiotic used was amoxicillin-clavulanate and sparing of carbapenems was observed. Even though 71(68.9%) bed head tickets (BHT) carried indications for antibiotic use; only one patient was on targeted treatment. Fifty-seven (80.2%) received antibiotics according to the National Antibiotic Guideline considering site of infection and 14(19.8%) did not comply with the guidelines.
Conclusion:Compliance rate with guidelines and documentation has room for improvement through implementing ASP, availability of user-friendly guidelines and the periodic audit in the hospital.
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