Previous authors have rejected the Poisson model for association football scores in favour of the Negative Binomial. This paper, however, investigates the Poisson model further. Parameters representing the teams' inherent attacking and defensive strengths are incorporated and the most appropriate model is found from a hierarchy of models. Observed and expected frequencies of scores are compared and goodness‐of‐fit tests show that although there are some small systematic differences, an independent Poisson model gives a reasonably accurate description of football scores. Improvements can be achieved by the use of a bivariate Poisson model with a correlation between scores of 0.2.
Article:Maher, M.J., Zhang, X. and van Vliet, D. (2001) Abstract ⎯ This paper deals with two mathematically similar problems in transport network analysis: trip matrix estimation and traffic signal optimisation on congested road networks.These two problems are formulated as bi-level programming problems with stochastic user equilibrium assignment as the second-level programming problem. We differentiate two types of solutions in the combined matrix estimation and stochastic user equilibrium assignment problem (or, the combined signal optimisation and stochastic user equilibrium assignment problem): one is the solution to the bi-level programming problem and the other the mutually consistent solution where the two sub-problems in the combined problem are solved simultaneously. In this paper, we shall concentrate on the bi-level programming approach although we shall also consider mutually consistent solutions so as to contrast the two types of solutions. The purpose of the paper is to present a solution algorithm for the two bi-level programming problems and to test the algorithm on several networks.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.