The basic reproduction number, R₀, is probably the most important quantity in epidemiology. It is used to measure the transmission potential during the initial phase of an epidemic. In this paper, we are specifically concerned with the quantification of the spread of a disease modeled by a Markov chain. Due to the occurrence of repeated contacts taking place between a typical infective individual and other individuals already infected before, R₀ overestimates the average number of secondary infections. We present two alternative measures, namely, the exact reproduction number, Re0, and the population transmission number, Rp, that overcome this difficulty and provide valuable insight. The applicability of Re0 and Rp to control of disease spread is also examined.
Populations are often subject to the effect of catastrophic events that cause mass removal. In particular, metapopulation models, epidemics, and migratory flows provide practical examples of populations subject to dis asters (e.g., habitat destruction, environmental catastrophes). Many stochastic models have been developed to explain the behavior of these populations. Most of the reported results concern the measures of the risk of extinction and the distribution of the population size in the case of total catastrophes where all individuals in the population are removed simultaneously. In this paper, we investigate the basic immigration process subject to binomial and geometric catastrophes; that is, the population size is reduced according to a binomial or a geometric law. We carry out an extensive analysis including first extinction time, number of individuals removed, survival time of a tagged individual, and maximum population size reached between two consecutive extinctions. Many explicit expressions are derived for these system descriptors, and some emphasis is put to show that some of them deserve extra attention.
This paper deals with the analysis of an M/M/c queueing system with setup times. This queueing model captures the major characteristics of phenomena occurring in production when the system consists in a set of machines monitored by a single operator. We carry out an extensive analysis of the system including limiting distribution of the system state, waiting time analysis, busy period and maximum queue length.
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