Addressing population declines of migratory insects requires linking populations across different portions of the annual cycle and understanding the effects of variation in weather and climate on productivity, recruitment, and patterns of long-distance movement. We used stable H and C isotopes and geospatial modeling to estimate the natal origin of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) in eastern North America using over 1000 monarchs collected over almost four decades at Mexican overwintering colonies. Multinomial regression was used to ascertain which climate-related factors best-predicted temporal variation in natal origin across six breeding regions. The region producing the largest proportion of overwintering monarchs was the US Midwest (mean annual proportion = 0.38; 95% CI: 0.36-0.41) followed by the north-central (0.17; 0.14-0.18), northeast (0.15; 0.11-0.16), northwest (0.12; 0.12-0.16), southwest (0.11; 0.08-0.12), and southeast (0.08; 0.07-0.11) regions. There was no evidence of directional shifts in the relative contributions of different natal regions over time, which suggests these regions are comprising the same relative proportion of the overwintering population in recent years as in the mid-1970s. Instead, interannual variation in the proportion of monarchs from each region covaried with climate, as measured by the Southern Oscillation Index and regional-specific daily maximum temperature and precipitation, which together likely dictate larval development rates and food plant condition. Our results provide the first robust long-term analysis of predictors of the natal origins of monarchs overwintering in Mexico. Conservation efforts on the breeding grounds focused on the Midwest region will likely have the greatest benefit to eastern North American migratory monarchs, but the population will likely remain sensitive to regional and stochastic weather patterns.

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Monarch butterflies in eastern North America have declined by 84% on Mexican wintering grounds since the observed peak in 1996. However, coarse-scale population indices from northern US breeding grounds do not show a consistent downward trend. This discrepancy has led to speculation that autumn migration may be a critical limiting period. We address this hypothesis by examining the role of multiscale processes impacting monarchs during autumn, assessed using arrival abundances at all known winter colony sites over a 12-y period (2004–2015). We quantified effects of continental-scale (climate, landscape greenness, and disease) and local-scale (colony habitat quality) drivers of spatiotemporal trends in winter colony sizes. We also included effects of peak summer and migratory population indices. Our results demonstrate that higher summer abundance on northern breeding grounds led to larger winter colonies as did greener autumns, a proxy for increased nectar availability in southern US floral corridors. Colony sizes were also positively correlated with the amount of local dense forest cover and whether they were located within the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve, but were not influenced by disease rates. Although we demonstrate a demographic link between summer and fine-scale winter population sizes, we also reveal that conditions experienced during, and at the culmination of, autumn migration impact annual dynamics. Monarchs face a growing threat if floral resources and winter habitat availability diminish under climate change. Our study tackles a long-standing gap in the monarch’s annual cycle and highlights the importance of evaluating migratory conditions to understand mechanisms governing long-term population trends.

With the potential expansion of forest conservation programs spurred by climate-change agreements, there is a need to measure the extent to which such programs achieve their intended results. Conventional methods for evaluating conservation impact tend to be biased because they do not compare like areas or account for spatial relations. We assessed the effect of a conservation initiative that combined designation of protected areas with payments for environmental services to conserve over wintering habitat for the monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus) in Mexico. To do so, we used a spatial-matching estimator that matches covariates among polygons and their neighbors. We measured avoided forest loss (avoided disturbance and deforestation) by comparing forest cover on protected and unprotected lands that were similar in terms of accessibility, governance, and forest type. Whereas conventional estimates of avoided forest loss suggest that conservation initiatives did not protect forest cover, we found evidence that the conservation measures are preserving forest cover. We found that the conservation measures protected between 200 ha and 710 ha (3-16%) of forest that is high-quality habitat for monarch butterflies, but had a smaller effect on total forest cover, preserving between 0 ha and 200 ha (0-2.5%) of forest with canopy cover >70%. We suggest that future estimates of avoided forest loss be analyzed spatially to account for how forest loss occurs across the landscape. Given the forthcoming demand from donors and carbon financiers for estimates of avoided forest loss, we anticipate our methods and results will contribute to future studies that estimate the outcome of conservation efforts.

SUMMARYThe arrival of bone marrow T-cell progenitors to the thymus, and the directed migration of thymocytes, are thought to be regulated by the expression of chemokines and their receptors. Recent data has shown that the Jak ⁄Stat signalling pathway is involved in chemokine receptor signalling. We have investigated the role of Jak 3 in chemokine-mediated signalling in the thymus using Jak 3 -⁄ -mice. These mice show defects in T-cell development, as well as in peripheral T-cell function, resulting in a hypoplastic thymus and an altered T-cell homeostasis. Here we demonstrate, for the first time, that bone marrow progenitors and thymocytes from Jak 3 -⁄ -mice have decreased chemotactic responses to CXCL12 and CCL25. We also show that Jak 3 is involved in signalling through CCR9 and CXCR4, and that specific inhibition of Jak 3 in wild-type progenitors and thymocytes decreases their chemotactic responses towards CCL25 and CXCL12. Finally, quantitative reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction analysis showed that thymocytes from Jak 3 -⁄ -mice express similar levels of CXCR4 and CCR9 compared to wild-type mice. Altogether, deficient CCL25-and CXCL12-induced migration could result in a homing defect of T-cell progenitors to the thymus, as well as in a deficient thymocyte migration through the thymic stroma. Our results strongly suggest that the absence of Jak 3 affects T-cell development, not only through an impaired interleukin-7 receptor (IL-7R)-mediated signalling, but also through impaired chemokine-mediated responses, which are crucial for thymocyte migration and differentiation.

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For most crops, like Capsicum, their diversity remains under-researched for traits of interest for food, nutrition and other purposes. A small investment in screening this diversity for a wide range of traits is likely to reveal many traditional varieties with distinguished values. One objective of this study was to demonstrate, with Capsicum as model crop, the application of indicators of phenotypic and geographic diversity as effective criteria for selecting promising genebank accessions for multiple uses from crop centers of diversity. A second objective was to evaluate the expression of biochemical and agromorphological properties of the selected Capsicum accessions in different conditions. Four steps were involved: 1) Develop the necessary diversity by expanding genebank collections in Bolivia and Peru; 2) Establish representative subsets of ~100 accessions for biochemical screening of Capsicum fruits; 3) Select promising accessions for different uses after screening; and 4) Examine how these promising accessions express biochemical and agromorphological properties when grown in different environmental conditions. The Peruvian Capsicum collection now contains 712 accessions encompassing all five domesticated species (C. annuum, C. chinense, C. frutescens, C. baccatum, and C. pubescens). The collection in Bolivia now contains 487 accessions, representing all five domesticates plus four wild taxa (C. baccatum var. baccatum, C. caballeroi, C. cardenasii, and C. eximium). Following the biochemical screening, 44 Bolivian and 39 Peruvian accessions were selected as promising, representing wide variation in levels of antioxidant capacity, capsaicinoids, fat, flavonoids, polyphenols, quercetins, tocopherols, and color. In Peru, 23 promising accessions performed well in different environments, while each of the promising Bolivian accessions only performed well in a certain environment. Differences in Capsicum diversity and local contexts led to distinct outcomes in each country. In Peru, mild landraces with high values in health-related attributes were of interest to entrepreneurs. In Bolivia, wild Capsicum have high commercial demand.

Since the monarch butterfly overwintering habitat was discovered in the mountainous fir forests in central Mexico three presidential decrees have been issued (1980, 1986, 2001) to protect it. But these forests are the source of livelihood for many local people, whose activities (wood extraction and clearance for subsistence farming) represent a major threat to the forests, and thus to the butterfly population. This study identifies important deforestation, disturbance, and recovery processes caused by human activities in the protected areas and their surroundings. Contrary to our expectations, the protected areas have been most negatively affected by human activities, whereas areas devoted to multiple uses have been more adequately preserved.Key words: monarch butterfly habitat, deforestation, forest disturbance, protected areas Depuis que les sites d'hivernage du monarque ont été découverts dans les forêts montagneuses de sapin du centre du Mexique, trios décrets présidentiels ont été émis (1980, 1986, 2001) afin de les protéger. Mais ces forêts sont des sources de subsistance pour plusieurs agglomérations locales, dont les activités d'extraction du bois et déboisement agricole constituent une importante menace pour ces forêts et par conséquence pour les populations de papillons. Cette étude souligne l'importance du déboisement, des perturbations et des processus de récupération provoqués par l'activité humaine sur les territoires protégés et les environs immédiats. Contrairement à nos attentes, les territoires protégés ont été très affectés négativement par l'activité humaine, alors que les territoires consacrés aux utilisations polyvalentes ont été plus adéquatement préservés.