Aphids, because of their short generation time and low developmental threshold temperatures, are an insect group expected to respond particularly strongly to environmental changes. Forty years of standardized, daily data on the abundance of flying aphids have been brought together from countries throughout Europe, through the EU Thematic Network 'EXAMINE'. Relationships between phenology, represented by date of first appearance in a year in a suction trap, of 29 aphid species and environmental data have been quantified using the residual maximum likelihood (REML) methodology. These relationships have been used with climate change scenario data to suggest plausible changes in aphid phenology. In general, the date of first record of aphid species in suction traps is expected to advance, the rate of advance varying with location and species, but averaging 8 days over the next 50 years. Strong relationships between aphid phenology and environmental variables have been found for many species, but they are notably weaker in species living all year on trees. Canonical variate analysis and principal coordinate analysis were used to determine ordinations of the 29 species on the basis of the presence/absence of explanatory variables in the REML models. There was strong discrimination between species with different life cycle strategies and between species feeding on herbs and trees, suggesting the possible value of trait-based groupings in predicting responses to environmental changes.

The suite of environments and anthropogenic modifications of sub-Antarctic islands provide key opportunities to improve our understanding of the potential consequences of climate change and biological species invasions on terrestrial ecosystems. The profound impact of human introduced invasive species on indigenous biota, and the facilitation of establishment as a result of changing thermal conditions, has been well documented on the French subAntarctic Kerguelen Islands (South Indian Ocean). The present study provides an overview of the vulnerability of sub-Antarctic terrestrial communities with respect to two interacting factors, namely climate change and alien insects. We present datasets assimilated by our teams on the Kerguelen Islands since 1974, coupled with a review of the literature, to evaluate the mechanism and impact of biological invasions in this region. First, we consider recent climatic trends of the Antarctic region, and its potential influence on the establishment, distribution and abundance of alien insects, using as examples one fly and one beetle species. Second, we consider to what extent limited gene pools may restrict alien species' colonisations. Finally, we consider the vulnerability of native communities to aliens using the examples of one beetle, one fly, and five aphid species taking into consideration their additional impact as plant virus vectors. We conclude that the evidence assimilated from the sub-Antarctic islands can be applied to more complex temperate continental systems as well as further developing international guidelines to minimise the impact of alien species.

Aphids typically reproduce by cyclical parthenogenesis, with a single sexual generation alternating with numerous asexual generations each year. However, some species exhibit different life cycle variants with various degrees of investment in sexuality. We tested the hypothesis that these life cycle variants are selected in space and time by climatic factors, mainly winter severity, due to an ecological link between sexual reproduction and the production of a cold-resistant form, the egg. More than 600 clones of the aphid Sitobion avenae F. were collected in five to six regions of France with contrasting climates during 3 consecutive years and compared for their production of sexual forms in standardised conditions. As predicted by a recent model of breeding system distribution and maintenance in aphids, we found a clear shift between northern and southern populations, with decreasing sexuality southwards. Life cycle variants investing entirely or partly in sexual reproduction in autumn predominated in northern sites, while obligate parthenogens and male-producers dominated in the southern sites. No clear east-west pattern of decreasing sexuality was found, and annualvariation in the relative proportions of life cycle variants was not clearly influenced by the severity of the previous winter. These latter results suggest that other selection pressures could interact with winter climate to determine the local life cycle polymorphism in S. avenae populations.

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