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During its ascent up Mount Sharp, the Mars Science Laboratory Curiosity rover traversed the Bagnold Dune Field. We model sand modal mineralogy and grain size at four locations near the rover traverse, using orbital shortwave infrared single-scattering albedo spectra and a Markov chain Monte Carlo implementation of Hapke's radiative transfer theory to fully constrain uncertainties and permitted solutions. These predictions, evaluated against in situ measurements at one site from the Curiosity rover, show that X-ray diffraction-measured mineralogy of the basaltic sands is within the 95% confidence interval of model predictions. However, predictions are relatively insensitive to grain size and are nonunique, especially when modeling the composition of minerals with solid solutions. We find an overall basaltic mineralogy and show subtle spatial variations in composition in and around the Bagnold Dunes, consistent with a mafic enrichment of sands with cumulative aeolian-transport distance by sorting of olivine, pyroxene, and plagioclase grains. Furthermore, the large variations in Fe and Mg abundances (~20 wt %) at the Bagnold Dunes suggest that compositional variability may be enhanced by local mixing of well-sorted sand with proximal sand sources. Our estimates demonstrate a method for orbital quantification of composition with rigorous uncertainty determination and provide key constraints for interpreting in situ measurements of compositional variability within Martian aeolian sandstones.

Although there is little doubt that rivers once flowed on Mars' surface, how sustained and frequent their flows were remains enigmatic. Understanding the hydrology of early Mars, nonetheless, is a prerequisite to resolving the planet's climate history and the astrobiological potential of various ancient putative ecosystems. In 2021, NASA's Perseverance rover will attempt to land near ancient fluviodeltaic deposits in Jezero crater. Deltas offer enhanced organic-matter burial and preservation on Earth but translating this notion to early Martian environments remains speculative in the absence of information on flow intermittency and sedimentation rates. Here we develop a new model to infer the lateral migration rate of Martian river meanders, which, combined with orbiter-based observations of the fluviodeltaic deposits at Jezero crater, allows us to determine a minimum timescale for the formation of its delta. We then independently constrain the total duration of delta formation, including dry spells. Our best estimates suggest that delta formation spanned~19-37 years over a total duration of~380,000 years, i.e., that rivers flowed for a minimum~1 sol/15-30 Martian years and conceivably more frequently, but uncertainties on total duration are large. Despite a possibly arid climate, predicted sedimentation rates are high, suggesting a rapid burial of putative organics in distal deposits. Altogether, our results support Jezero crater's potential as a prime target to look for ancient Martian life and acquire samples to return to Earth. Any discrepancies between our predictions of the deposits' grain-to-bedform-scale architecture and future rover observations will shed critical light onto Mars' early surface environments. Plain Language Summary Rivers once flowed on Mars, but how often, and for how long? Answering these questions will increase our understanding of Mars' habitability at a time when life was already evolving on Earth. NASA's Perseverance rover will land by the remnants of an ancient river delta in Jezero crater. Here we develop a new model to calculate the pace of shifting Martian rivers, which, when applied to orbital observations of the Jezero delta, allows us to determine a minimum duration for delta formation. Combined with an independent estimate for the total duration of delta formation (including dry spells), our results suggest that the delta took a few decades to form over a total timespan of, most likely, hundreds of thousands of years. This result suggests that Mars was likely arid at the time, with rivers flowing for at least 1 Martian day every 15-30 Martian years, and possibly more often. Nonetheless, we predict that sediments would have been buried quickly in the delta, favoring the long-term preservation of possible organic matter. Altogether, our results confirm that Jezero crater is a prime location to understand Mars' early climate, look for traces of ancient Martian life, and return samples from for further analysis on Earth.

Flume experiments and field observations show that bank vegetation promotes the formation of narrow and deep single‐thread channels by strengthening riverbanks. Consistent with this idea, the pre‐Silurian fluvial record generally consists of wide monotonous sand bodies often interpreted as deposits of shallow braided rivers, whereas single‐thread rivers with muddy floodplains become more recognizable in Silurian and younger rocks. This shift in the architecture of fluvial deposits has been interpreted as reflecting the rise of single‐thread rivers enabled by plant life. The deposits of some single‐thread rivers, however, have been recognized in pre‐Silurian rocks, and recent field studies have identified meandering rivers in modern unvegetated environments. Furthermore, single‐thread‐river deposits have been identified on Mars, where macroscopic plants most likely never evolved. Here we seek to understand the formation of those rarely recognized and poorly characterized single‐thread rivers in unvegetated landscapes. Specifically, we quantitatively explore the hypothesis that cohesive muddy banks alone may enable the formation of single‐thread rivers in the absence of plants. We combine open‐channel hydraulics and a physics‐based erosion model applicable to a variety of bank sediments to predict the formation of unvegetated single‐thread rivers. Consistent with recent flume experiments and field observations, results indicate that single‐thread rivers may form readily within muddy banks. Our model has direct implications for the quantification of riverbank strengthening by vegetation, understanding the hydraulic geometry of modern and ancient unvegetated rivers, interpreting pre‐Silurian fluvial deposits, and unraveling the hydrologic and climate history of Mars.