In recent years, the e-bike has become increasingly popular in many European countries. With higher speeds and less effort needed, the e-bike is a promising mode of transport to many, and it is considered a good alternative for certain car trips by policy-makers and planners. A major limitation of many studies that investigate such substitution effects of the e-bike, is their reliance on cross-sectional data which do not allow an assessment of within-person travel mode changes. As a consequence, there is currently no consensus about the e-bike’s potential to replace car trips. Furthermore, there has been little research focusing on heterogeneity among e-bike users. In this respect, it is likely that different groups exist that use the e-bike for different reasons (e.g. leisure vs commute travel), something which will also influence possible substitution patterns. This paper contributes to the literature in two ways: (1) it presents a statistical analysis to assess the extent to which e-bike trips are substituting trips by other travel modes based on longitudinal data; (2) it reveals different user groups among the e-bike population. A Random Intercept Cross-Lagged Panel Model is estimated using five waves of data from the Netherlands Mobility Panel. Furthermore, a Latent Class Analysis is performed using data from the Dutch national travel survey. Results show that, when using longitudinal data, the substitution effects between e-bike and the competing travel modes of car and public transport are not as significant as reported in earlier research. In general, e-bike trips only significantly reduce conventional bicycle trips in the Netherlands, which can be regarded an unwanted effect from a policy-viewpoint. For commuting, the e-bike also substitutes car trips. Furthermore, results show that there are five different user groups with their own distinct behaviour patterns and socio-demographic characteristics. They also show that groups that use the e-bike primarily for commuting or education are growing at a much higher rate than groups that mainly use the e-bike for leisure and shopping purposes.
In recent years, there has been a resurgence of interest in the ‘disagreement’ or dissonance between travel attitudes and behaviours. This has shown that when people experience travel-related dissonance they are less satisfied with their travel experience. However, what remains unclear is whether people experiencing dissonance are more likely to change their travel attitude or their behaviour, so that they are more closely aligned. Moreover, it is unclear whether and how life events, such as having a child, interact with creating or reducing travel-related dissonance. Using data from a large and well-designed longitudinal study, this paper addresses these two gaps in the literature on travel-related cognitive dissonance through an exploratory study. The findings suggest that dissonant travellers are more likely to change their segment membership than consonant travellers. Furthermore, in line with the theory of cognitive dissonance, people may adjust either their attitudes or behaviours to achieve a state of consonance. This suggests that policymakers should not only focus on subtle nudges aimed at changing attitudes (and subsequently behaviours) in desirable directions but also on implementing policies aimed at directly influencing behaviours, assuming that attitudes will follow.
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