Purpose. To develop a model of investigating the link between the level of shadow economy and indicators of social development of the country. Methodology. The study of the relationship between the analyzed indicators was conducted using general and special research methods. The established hypotheses were tested using VAR/VEC modeling. Dickey-Fuller test, the Phillips-Perron test, Joansen test are used in the work. Findings. The paper identifies the risks of the shadow economy for social indicators of macroeconomic stability. Based on the analysis of the countrys social development indicators, indicators were identified that are most sensitive to changes in the level of the shadow economy which are: Gini coefficient, average income ratio of 10% of the richest to 10% of the poorest, average income ratio of 20% of the richest to 20% of the poorest sections of the population, Human Development Index, gross average wage. The EU countries and Ukraine are identified as the statistical base of the study and the assessment period is 20052020. The results of modeling proved the relationship between the level of shadow economy and indicator of social development. Originality. The approach to assessing the relationship between the level of the shadow economy and indicators of social development of the country by considering the indicators that most fully characterize the level of social protection and material well-being of the population has been improved. Practical value. The scientific contribution of the paper is that existing research on the impact of shadow economy on the level of social development of the countries remains fragmented, as well as studies assessing its effect on the macroeconomic stability. The impulse response function constructed by the authors may provide some insight into better understanding of the indicators of social development, the most sensitive to the shadow economy shocks. The results of estimation can be used for practical or scientific purposes.

This study came to inspect a new approach to the government debt security assessment based on the systematization of indicators in terms of four directions: solvency, liquidity, domestic indebtedness, and external indebtedness. The proposed methodology considers the weaknesses, which negatively affect the level of government debt security. It was established that in 2014−2016 the level of security at emerging markets was the worst. The main reason was insufficient solvency. Also, the obtained results showed that the general assessment of domestic indebtedness in recent years had a more dangerous level than the external one. In addition, it was revealed that similar problems with the level of debt burden are also presented in the EU countries since the value of the analyzed indicator – general government debt to GDP – exceeds 60%. It is recommended to consider the experience of debt management reform of new members of the EU and, at the same time, post-socialist countries by other emerging economies.

The formation of public finances in Ukraine is significantly influenced by fiscal risks, which, first of all, are associated with macro-economic shocks, accumulated through the State and guaranteed debt, natural disasters and other circumstances that have a significant negative impact on the stability of indicators of the budget system. The article is aimed at disclosing the essence, systematize methodological principles and practical approaches to managing fiscal risks for assessment, minimization of their impact on budget indicators in modern conditions of economic uncertainty. Comparison and generalization of existing developments of this problematics made it possible to systematize and characterize the following: the main approaches to understanding the economic essence of fiscal risks (functional, institutional, causal, structural, managerial); categorize risks in accordance with the current recommendations of international institutions (IMF, World Bank, OECD); reveal the peculiarities of the main components of the best practices of fiscal risk management in the countries of the world. Attention is focused on expanding the classification of fiscal risks in the national methodological provisions and their taking into account in the tax and customs spheres; directions of integration of the fiscal risk management system into the budget process of local budgets, amalgamated hromadas; development of scientific provisions on the substantiation of the integral indicator of assessing the fiscal risks, characterized by the nonlinear nature of the development of economic processes and the creation of powerful think tanks for qualitative measurement and forecasting of possible threats in the sphere of public finances.

The COVID-19 pandemic has been shown dire consequences for the global economy, not only in the past and present but also in the future. These consequences are not only humanitarian but also financial and economic. This article raises the question of whether the state of the health system is a factor that determines the direction of changes in consumer and business sentiment during the COVID-19 or whether other factors are more significant. The goal is to find out whether there is real progress in the national health system of a particular country or a regression and on this base to answer the question: What is more important for the expectations of the population and industry during the spread of the pandemic; the dynamics of the development of the health system or other factors? To assess the dynamics of the development of the health care system in different countries, we used the annual data on individual health indicators of the OECD countries for 2006–2019. There were identified countries with dynamic development and a slowing/deteriorating health system. Based on Granger’s approach in EViews, we used the Augmented Dickey–Fuller test and admit that health care systems are not a determining factor in consumer and business sentiment during a pandemic, i.e., only economic factors. The research contributes to the developed COVID-19 research by examining the impact of the changes in the mutual influence of Confidence indexes and macro indicators during the pandemic.

In today's world, FDI plays an important role for developing economies, as it not only transfers technology and capital, but also determines the dynamics and depth of economic growth and shows the speed of the process of transformation of the economic ecosystem at the national and global levels. Despite the above advantages, the inflow of FDI into Ukraine is not as great as in other countries of the region. The purpose of this article is to analyze the factors influencing foreign direct investment in Ukraine. In this article, based on foreign experience, economic, institutional and other factors influencing FDI were analyzed. Also, the dependence of the inflow of foreign direct investment in the context of Ukraine was assessed, and the prospects and forecast of future investment income were described. The results of the analysis carried out during the writing of this article made it possible to determine the factors that affect the inflow of FDI into the country's economy in order to assess their impact in the context of Ukraine. These include: market size measured by GDP, exchange rate, average wage, indicators of human potential, ease of doing business, level of corruption, tax burden, rule of law index, as well as the impact of regional trade agreements, in particular the free trade zone between Ukraine and EU, established in 2016. Some factors influencing the inflow of FDI to Ukraine over the past 10 years were graphically analyzed, which allowed systematizing a large volume of researched data and became the basis for further analysis of Ukraine's investment situation. After that, regression equations were constructed for each of the influence factors and coefficients of determination were determined. Thus, it can be concluded that in the context of Ukraine, the following factors were statistically significant: institutional indicators, nominal GDP, which measured market potential, the exchange rate of the US dollar, as well as the regional trade agreement factor, which was measured by the volume of trade between Ukraine and the EU. While others show no significant effect or are not supported by the relevant theory. At the end of the article, forecasts of future FDI inflows to Ukraine after the end of the war were formed and described. Regarding recommendations for further research on this topic, it would be useful to analyze the influence of corruption indicators on the inflow of foreign direct investment to Ukraine, as well as the influence of human development of Ukrainians on the attractiveness of investments in the state, as well as to conduct a study of how important labor costs are strength in attracting FDI to Ukraine.

The work investigates the modern directions of the development of fiscal policy from the standpoint of theory, methodology, practice. It systemizes scientific approaches to the economic essence and the author's definition of fiscal policy characterized by a set of state measures to implement the concept of fiscal regulation of economic entities, providing revenue generation and financing of budget expenditures at all levels for sustainable socio-economic development. Further development of theoretical and methodological principles allowed to substantiate the conceptual basis of modern fiscal policy in ensuring socio-economic development of the state: subjects, objects, types of fiscal policy, functions, goals, objectives, principles, criteria, a fiscal mechanism (methods, levers, incentives, forms, tools, sanctions). The factors influencing the implementation of fiscal policy in Ukraine were systematized, i.e. economic, social, institutional, informational, gender, cultural, and spiritual. The work widely discloses information tools of digitalization, which allows the implementation of fiscal policy in Ukraine on the principles of transparency and digitalization. Despite the positive trends in the system of formation of state budget expenditures related to budget financing in priority areas of development, the analysis of the interdependence of fiscal policy and economic growth identifies current threats to the effectiveness of its implementation, including fiscal risks arising from under-execution of revenues, expenditures of the State budget, high level of budget deficit and public debt. Fiscal risks for the analyzed period ranged from 0.64% to 0.11% of GDP. Improving Ukraine’s fiscal policy in modern conditions should be aimed at building a modern competitive socially-oriented market economy integrated into the EU, increasing aggregate tax revenues to all levels of budgets and state trust funds; conducting a balanced fiscal policy in the medium term. The paper emphasizes that the risk management system, used to assess fiscal risks in the budget process, should be integrated into the modern concept of fiscal policy, and the improvement of methodological tools should focus on the increase of the effectiveness of fiscal policy in ensuring financial and economic security.

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