1.Predicting the current and potential distributions of established invasive species is critical for evaluating management options, but methods for differentiating these distributions have received little attention. In particular, there is uncertainty among invasive species managers about the value of information from incidental sightings compared to data from designed field surveys. This study compares the two approaches, and develops a unifying framework, using the case of invasive sambar deer Cervus unicolor in Victoria, Australia.2.We first used 391 incidental sightings of sambar deer and 12 biophysical variables to construct a presence-only habitat suitability model using Maxent. We then used that model to stratify field sampling, with proportionately greater sampling of cells with high predicted habitat suitability. Field sampling, consisting of faecal pellet surveys, sign surveys and camera trapping, was conducted in 80 4-km2 grid cells. A Bayesian state-space occupancy model was used to predict probability of suitable habitat from the field data.3.The Maxent and occupancy models predicted similar spatial distributions of habitat suitability for sambar deer in Victoria and there was a strong positive correlation between the rankings of cells by the two approaches. The congruence of the two models suggests that any spatial and detection biases in the presence-only data were relatively unimportant in our study.4.We predicted the extent of suitable habitat from the occupancy model using a threshold that gave a false negative error rate of 0·05. The current distribution was the suitable habitat within a kernel that had a 99·5% chance of including the presence locations pooled from incidental sightings and field surveys: the potential distribution was suitable habitat outside that kernel. Several discrete areas of potential distribution were identified as priorities for surveillance monitoring with the aim of detecting and managing incursions of sambar deer.5.Synthesis and applications.Our framework enables managers to robustly estimate the current and potential distributions of established invasive species using either presence-only and/or presence–absence data. Managers can then focus control and/or containment actions within the current distribution and establish surveillance monitoring to detect incursions within the potential distribution.

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Writing Committee for the REMAP-CAP Investigators IMPORTANCE The evidence for benefit of convalescent plasma for critically ill patients with COVID-19 is inconclusive.OBJECTIVE To determine whether convalescent plasma would improve outcomes for critically ill adults with COVID-19. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTSThe ongoing Randomized, Embedded, Multifactorial, Adaptive Platform Trial for Community-Acquired Pneumonia (REMAP-CAP) enrolled and randomized 4763 adults with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 between March 9, 2020, and January 18, 2021, within at least 1 domain; 2011 critically ill adults were randomized to open-label interventions in the immunoglobulin domain at 129 sites in 4 countries. Follow-up ended on April 19, 2021. INTERVENTIONSThe immunoglobulin domain randomized participants to receive 2 units of high-titer, ABO-compatible convalescent plasma (total volume of 550 mL ± 150 mL) within 48 hours of randomization (n = 1084) or no convalescent plasma (n = 916). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURESThe primary ordinal end point was organ support-free days (days alive and free of intensive care unit-based organ support) up to day 21 (range, −1 to 21 days; patients who died were assigned -1 day). The primary analysis was an adjusted bayesian cumulative logistic model. Superiority was defined as the posterior probability of an odds ratio (OR) greater than 1 (threshold for trial conclusion of superiority >99%). Futility was defined as the posterior probability of an OR less than 1.2 (threshold for trial conclusion of futility >95%). An OR greater than 1 represented improved survival, more organ support-free days, or both. The prespecified secondary outcomes included in-hospital survival; 28-day survival; 90-day survival; respiratory support-free days; cardiovascular support-free days; progression to invasive mechanical ventilation, extracorporeal mechanical oxygenation, or death; intensive care unit length of stay; hospital length of stay; World Health Organization ordinal scale score at day 14; venous thromboembolic events at 90 days; and serious adverse events. RESULTS Among the 2011 participants who were randomized (median age, 61 [IQR, 52 to 70] years and 645/1998 [32.3%] women), 1990 (99%) completed the trial. The convalescent plasma intervention was stopped after the prespecified criterion for futility was met. The median number of organ support-free days was 0 (IQR, -1 to 16) in the convalescent plasma group and 3 (IQR, -1 to 16) in the no convalescent plasma group. The in-hospital mortality rate was 37.3% (401/1075) for the convalescent plasma group and 38.4% (347/904) for the no convalescent plasma group and the median number of days alive and free of organ support was 14 (IQR, 3 to 18) and 14 (IQR, 7 to 18), respectively. The median-adjusted OR was 0.97 (95% credible interval, 0.83 to 1.15) and the posterior probability of futility (OR <1.2) was 99.4% for the convalescent plasma group compared with the no convalescent plasma group. The treatment effects were consistent across the primary outcome and the 11...

Environmental and agricultural pollination services by honey bees, Apis mellifera, and honey production are compromised by high levels of annual colony losses globally. The majority are associated with disease caused by deformed wing virus (DWV), a positive-strand RNA virus, exacerbated by the ectoparasitic mite Varroa destructor. To improve honey bee health, a better understanding of virus transmission and pathogenesis is needed which requires the development of tools to study virus replication, transmission, and localisation. We report the use of reverse genetic (RG) systems for the predominant genetically distinct variants of DWV to address these questions. All RG-recovered viruses replicate within 24 h post-inoculation of pupae and could recapitulate the characteristic symptoms of DWV disease upon eclosion. Larvae were significantly less susceptible but could be infected orally and subsequently developed disease. Using genetically tagged RG DWV and an in vitro Varroa feeding system, we demonstrate virus replication in the mite by accumulation of tagged negative-strand viral replication intermediates. We additionally apply a modified DWV genome expressing a fluorescent reporter protein for direct in vivo observation of virus distribution in injected pupae or fed larvae. Using this, we demonstrate extensive sites of virus replication in a range of pupal tissues and organs and in the nascent wing buds in larvae fed high levels of virus, indicative of a direct association between virus replication and pathogenesis. These studies provide insights into virus replication kinetics, tropism, transmission, and pathogenesis, and produce new tools to help develop the understanding needed to control DWV-mediated colony losses.

There is much interest in understanding how anthropogenic food resources subsidise carnivore populations. Carcasses of hunter-shot ungulates are a potentially substantial food source for mammalian carnivores. The sambar deer (Rusa unicolor) is a large (≥150 kg) exotic ungulate that can be hunted throughout the year in south-eastern Australia, and hunters are not required to remove or bury carcasses. We investigated how wild dogs/dingoes and their hybrids (Canis lupus familiaris/dingo), red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) and feral cats (Felis catus) utilised sambar deer carcasses during the peak hunting seasons (i.e. winter and spring). We placed carcasses at 1-km intervals along each of six transects that extended 4-km into forest from farm boundaries. Visits to carcasses were monitored using camera traps, and the rate of change in edible biomass estimated at ∼14-day intervals. Wild dogs and foxes fed on 70% and 60% of 30 carcasses, respectively, but feral cats seldom (10%) fed on carcasses. Spatial and temporal patterns of visits to carcasses were consistent with the hypothesis that foxes avoid wild dogs. Wild dog activity peaked at carcasses 2 and 3 km from farms, a likely legacy of wild dog control, whereas fox activity peaked at carcasses 0 and 4 km from farms. Wild dog activity peaked at dawn and dusk, whereas nearly all fox activity occurred after dusk and before dawn. Neither wild dogs nor foxes remained at carcasses for long periods and the amount of feeding activity by either species was a less important predictor of the loss of edible biomass than season. Reasons for the low impacts of wild dogs and foxes on sambar deer carcass biomass include the spatially and temporally unpredictable distribution of carcasses in the landscape, the rapid rate of edible biomass decomposition in warm periods, low wild dog densities and the availability of alternative food resources.

Deformed wing virus (DWV) is a persistent pathogen of European honey bees and the major contributor to overwintering colony losses. The prevalence of DWV in honey bees has led to significant concerns about spillover of the virus to other pollinating species. Bumble bees are both a major group of wild and commercially-reared pollinators. Several studies have reported pathogen spillover of DWV from honey bees to bumble bees, but evidence of a sustained viral infection characterized by virus replication and accumulation has yet to be demonstrated. Here we investigate the infectivity and transmission of DWV in bumble bees using the buff-tailed bumble bee Bombus terrestris as a model. We apply a reverse genetics approach combined with controlled laboratory conditions to detect and monitor DWV infection. A novel reverse genetics system for three representative DWV variants, including the two master variants of DWV—type A and B—was used. Our results directly confirm DWV replication in bumble bees but also demonstrate striking resistance to infection by certain transmission routes. Bumble bees may support DWV replication but it is not clear how infection could occur under natural environmental conditions.

Urban and forest habitats differ in many aspects that can lead to modifications of the immune system of wild animals. Altered parasite communities, pollution, and artificial light at night in cities have been associated with exacerbated inflammatory responses, with possibly negative fitness consequences, but few data are available from free-living animals. Here, we investigate how urbanization affects major immune pathways and experimentally test potentially contributing factors in blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus) from an urban and forest site. We first compared breeding adults by quantifying the mRNA transcript levels of proteins associated with anti-bacterial, anti-malarial (TLR4, LY86) and anti-helminthic (Type 2 transcription factor GATA3) immune responses. Adult urban and forest blue tits differed in gene expression, with significantly increased TLR4 and GATA3, but not LY86, in the city. We then experimentally tested whether these differences were environmentally induced by cross-fostering eggs between the sites and measuring mRNA transcripts in nestlings. The populations differed in reduced reproductive success, with a lower fledging success and lower fledgling weight recorded at the urban site. This mirrors the findings of our twin study reporting that the urban site was severely resource limited when compared to the forest. Because of low urban survival, robust gene expression data were only obtained from nestlings reared in the forest. Transcript levels in these nestlings showed no (TLR4, LY86), or weak (GATA3), differences according to their origin from forest or city nests, suggesting little genetic or maternal contribution to nestling immune transcript levels. Lastly, to investigate differences in parasite pressure between urban and forest sites, we measured the prevalence of malaria in adult and nestling blood. Prevalence was invariably high across environments and not associated with the transcript levels of the studied immune genes. Our results support the hypothesis that inflammatory pathways are activated in an urban environment and suggest that these differences are most likely induced by environmental factors.

The dingo (Canis dingo or C. familiaris, including hybrids with feral dogs) is the apex carnivore on mainland Australia. Fifteen non-native ungulate species have established wild populations in Australia. Dingoes are managed to reduce impacts on domestic ungulates, and introduced wild ungulates are managed to reduce impacts on natural ecosystems and to minimise competition with domestic ungulates. There is speculation about the extent to which (1) dingoes limit the abundances of introduced wild ungulates, and (2) introduced wild ungulates sustain dingo populations. We reviewed the literature to identify potential ecological interactions between dingoes and introduced wild ungulates, and to synthesise evidence for interactions between dingoes and each ungulate species (including the percentage frequency occurrence (%FO) of ungulates in dingo diets). Eleven of the 15 ungulate species were recorded in the diet of dingoes, with the highest %FO occurrences reported for feral goats (73%) and cattle (60%). Two studies concluded that dingoes reduced ungulate abundances (feral goat (Capra hircus) and feral donkey (Equus asinus)), and two studies concluded that dingoes did not regulate feral pig (Sus scrofa) abundances. A fifth study concluded that dingoes exhibited a Type III functional response to increasing sambar deer (Cervus unicolor) abundances. A sixth study concluded that dingoes made relatively little use of hunter-shot sambar deer carcasses. We propose that interactions between dingoes and introduced wild ungulates depend on the sex–age classes vulnerable to dingo predation, dingo pack sizes, the availability of escape terrain for ungulates and the availability of alternative foods for dingoes. The interplay between environmental conditions and the population growth rate of ungulates, and hence their ability to sustain losses from predation, could also be important. We predict that dingoes will have most impact on the abundance of smaller ungulate species and neonates.