Centre d'études et d'expertise sur les risques, l'environnement, la mobilité et l'aménagement

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The combination of high-dimensionality and disparity of time scales encountered in many problems in computational physics has motivated the development of coarse-grained (CG) models. In this paper, we advocate the paradigm of data-driven discovery for extracting governing equations by employing fine-scale simulation data. In particular, we cast the coarse-graining process under a probabilistic state-space model where the transition law dictates the evolution of the CG state variables and the emission law the coarse-to-fine map.The directed probabilistic graphical model implied, suggests that given values for the finegrained (FG) variables, probabilistic inference tools must be employed to identify the corresponding values for the CG states and to that end, we employ Stochastic Variational Inference. We advocate a sparse Bayesian learning perspective which avoids overfitting and reveals the most salient features in the CG evolution law. The formulation adopted enables the quantification of a crucial, and often neglected, component in the CG process, i.e. the predictive uncertainty due to information loss. Furthermore, it is capable of reconstructing the evolution of the full, fine-scale system. We demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed framework in high-dimensional systems of random walkers.