Background It is unknown whether renal pathology lesions in immunoglobulin A nephropathy (IgAN) correlate with renal outcomes over decades of follow-up. Methods In 1130 patients of the original Validation Study of the Oxford Classification for IgA Nephropathy (VALIGA) cohort, we studied the relationship between the MEST score (mesangial hypercellularity, M; endocapillary hypercellularity, E; segmental glomerulosclerosis, S; tubular atrophy/interstitial fibrosis, T), crescents (C) and other histological lesions with both a combined renal endpoint [50% estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) loss or kidney failure] and the rate of eGFR decline over a follow-up period extending to 35 years [median 7 years (interquartile range 4.1–10.8)]. Results In this extended analysis, M1, S1 and T1–T2 lesions as well as the whole MEST score were independently related with the combined endpoint (P < 0.01), and there was no effect modification by age for these associations, suggesting that they may be valid in children and in adults as well. Only T lesions were associated with the rate of eGFR loss in the whole cohort, whereas C showed this association only in patients not treated with immunosuppression. In separate prognostic analyses, the whole set of pathology lesions provided a gain in discrimination power over the clinical variables alone, which was similar at 5 years (+2.0%) and for the whole follow-up (+1.8%). A similar benefit was observed for risk reclassification analyses (+2.7% and +2.4%). Conclusion Long-term follow-up analyses of the VALIGA cohort showed that the independent relationship between kidney biopsy findings and the risk of progression towards kidney failure in IgAN remains unchanged across all age groups and decades after the renal biopsy.

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Renal function at presentation, anaemia and BVAS should be included in prediction models for the outcomes for the AAV patients.

Patients with progressive IgAN showed lower expression of mRNA encoding for the complement inhibitory protein CD46, which may implicate a defective regulation of C3 convertase with uncontrolled complement activation.

The proteasome to immunoproteasome (iPS) switch consists of β1, β2 and β5 subunit replacement by low molecular weight protein 2 (LMP2), LMP7 and multicatalytic endopeptidase-like complex-1 (MECL1) subunits, resulting in a more efficient peptide preparation for major histocompatibility complex 1 (MHC-I) presentation. It is activated by toll-like receptor (TLR) agonists and interferons and may also be influenced by genetic variation. In a previous study we found an iPS upregulation in peripheral cells of patients with immunoglobulin A nephropathy (IgAN). We aimed to investigate in 157 IgAN patients enrolled through the multinational Validation Study of the Oxford Classification of IgAN (VALIGA) study the relationships between iPS switch and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) modifications from renal biopsy to sampling. Patients had a previous long follow-up (6.4 years in median) that allowed an accurate calculation of their slope of renal function decline. We also evaluated the effects of the PSMB8/PSMB9 locus (rs9357155) associated with IgAN in genome-wide association studies and the expression of messenger RNAs (mRNAs) encoding for TLRs and CD46, a C3 convertase inhibitor, acting also on T-regulatory cell promotion, found to have reduced expression in progressive IgAN. We detected an upregulation of LMP7/β5 and LMP2/β1 switches. We observed no genetic effect of rs9357155. TLR4 and TLR2 mRNAs were found to be significantly associated with iPS switches, particularly TLR4 and LMP7/β5 (P < 0.0001). The LMP7/β5 switch was significantly associated with the rate of eGFR loss (P = 0.026), but not with eGFR at biopsy. Fast progressors (defined as the loss of eGFR >75th centile, i.e. −1.91 mL/min/1.73 m2/year) were characterized by significantly elevated LMP7/β5 mRNA (P = 0.04) and low CD46 mRNA expression (P < 0.01). A multivariate logistic regression model, categorizing patients by different levels of kidney disease progression, showed a high prediction value for the combination of high LMP7/β5 and low CD46 expression.