Mangroves could be key ecosystems in strategies addressing the mitigation of climate changes through carbon storage. However, little is known regarding the carbon stocks of these ecosystems, particularly below-ground. This study was carried out in the mangrove forests of Sofala Bay, Central Mozambique, with the aim of quantifying carbon stocks of live and dead plant and soil components. The methods followed the procedures developed by the Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR) for mangrove forests. In this study, we developed a general allometric equation to estimate individual tree biomass and soil carbon content (up to 100 cm depth). We estimated the carbon in the whole mangrove ecosystem of Sofala Bay, including dead trees, wood debris, herbaceous, pneumatophores, litter and soil. The general allometric equation for live trees derived was [Above-ground tree dry weight (kg) = 3.254 × exp(0.065 × DBH)], root mean square error (RMSE = 4.244), and coefficient of determination (R 2 = 0.89). The average total carbon storage of Sofala Bay mangrove was 218.5 Mg·ha , of which around 73% are stored in the soil. Mangrove conservation has the potential for REDD+ programs, especially in regions like Mozambique, which contains extensive mangrove areas with high deforestation and degradation rates.

Mangrove ecosystems are threatened by a variety of anthropogenic changes, including climate change. The main aim of this research is to quantify the spatial variation in the different mangrove carbon stocks, aboveground carbon (AGC), belowground carbon (BGC), and soil carbon (SOC), under future climate scenarios. Additionally, we sought to identify the magnitude of sea-level rise (SLR) exposure with the view of identifying the mangrove regions most likely to face elevated inundation. Different representative concentration pathways (RCPs) ranging from the most optimistic (RCP 2.6) to medium emissions (RCP 4.5) and the most pessimistic (RCP 8.5) were considered for 2070. We used the Marine Ecoregions of the World (MEOW), a biogeographical classification of coastal ecosystems, to quantify the variation in future carbon stocks at a regional scale and identify areas of potential carbon stock losses and gains. Here, we showed that the mangroves of Central and Western Indo-Pacific islands (Andamans, Papua New Guinea, and Vanuatu), the west African coast, and northeastern South America will be the worst hit and are projected to affect all three carbon stocks under all future scenarios. For instance, the Andaman ecoregion is projected to have an 11–25% decline in SOC accumulation, while the Western Indo-Pacific realm is projected to undergo the sharpest declines, ranging from 10% to 12% under all three scenarios. Examples of these areas are those in Amazonia and the eastern part of South Asia (such as in the Northern Bay of Bengal ecoregion). Based on these findings, conservation management of mangroves can be conducted.