RESUMENEl presente trabajo estudia los factores que influyen en la disposición a pagar (DAP) por un nuevo servicio de tren rápido de pasajeros entre Barranquilla y Cartagena. Como instrumento de toma de datos se utilizó la técnica de valoración contingente y mediante una estrategia de experimentación secuencial fueron identificados los factores con efecto significativo sobre la DAP, cuyo valor medio fue de $29.000. Se calibró un modelo de regresión de primer orden que explica la DAP en función de las variables intervalo del servicio, tiempo de viaje y acceso a red Wi-Fi y tomas eléctricas. El proceso de optimización para la variable de respuesta permitió aumentar su valor hasta $39.000, que se considera muy bajo si se compara con los referentes internacionales para este tipo de servicios, llegando a la conclusión que queda en entredicho la viabilidad del sistema propuesto.PALABRAS CLAVE: Disposición a pagar; tren de alta velocidad; análisis de varianza; regresión lineal múltiple.
WILLINGNESS TO PAY FOR A HIGH-SPEED PASSENGER RAIL SERVICE BETWEEN BARRANQUILLA AND CARTAGENA
ABSTRACTThis paper shows the factors influencing the willingness to pay (WTP) for a new high-speed passenger rail service between Barranquilla and Cartagena. We used the contingent valuation as an instrument for data collection and we conducted a sequential experimental design in order to identify factors that have significant effect on DAP, which average value was $29,000 Colombian pesos. We calibrated a first order regression model to explain the DAP based on the variables: headway, travel time and Wi-Fi availability and electrical outlets. The optimization process greatly enhanced the DAP to a cost of $39,000 Colombian pesos, which is considered very low compared with international benchmarks for these services, concluding that it calls into question the viability of the proposed system.
KEYWORDS:Willingness to pay; High-speed passenger rail service; ANOVA; Multiple Linear Regression.Revista EIA, ISSN 1794-1237 / Año XIII / Volumen 13 / Edición N.26 / Julio-Diciembre 2016 / pp. 83-94 Publicación semestral de carácter técnico-científico / Universidad EIA, Envigado (Colombia)
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