A indústria do turismo no Peru gera aproximadamente 1.1 milhão de empregos e contribui com 3.3% do PIB, o que a torna uma de suas principais atividades econômicas, portanto o turismo não é mais apenas uma atividade comercial mas é uma ferramenta para o desenvolvimento da população peruana, especialmente nas regiões com alto índice de pobreza e muitas atrações turísticas como é o caso da região de Puno com uma taxa de pobreza de 24.2% localizada no sul do país e com muitas atrações históricas, naturais, cultural e gastronômico. O objetivo desta pesquisa é modelar a procura de turistas internacionais que visitam Puno utilizando a metodologia ARIMA de Box-Jenkins, para este estudo considera informações mensais de chegadas de turistas internacionais entre os anos 2003 e 2017. Finalmente, usando estatísticas MAPE, Z, R, Critério de Informação de Akaike (AIC) e Critério de Schwarz (SC) se encontrou ao modelo SARIMA (6, 1, 24)(1, 0, 1)12 como o mais eficiente para a modelação e previsão da procura do Turismo Internacional na região de Puno.
Between 2000 and 2017, non-traditional exports in Peru have shown an accelerated growth mainly explained by the agricultural sector, followed by the fishing, textile, chemical and steel-metallurgical sectors, presenting a surprising growth of 470.95% in this period. The objective of the study is to find the macroeconomic determinants of exports of non-traditional products to Peru through the search of the long-term relationship, using the Johansen methodology and the implementation of the Error Correction Vector Model to find the short dynamics and long term for exports of non-traditional products. The results show that the determinants of exports are US gross production, bilateral real exchange rate index and export index, which have a cointegration relationship. Finally, it was found that gross US production has a positive influence, the bilateral real exchange rate index has a negative influence and the export price index has a negative influence on exports of non-traditional products in Peru.
El Perú es una economía pequeña y abierta al mundo que depende en gran medida de las transacciones con sus socios comerciales y está expuesta a shocks financieros como los creados por la crisis financiera del año 2008. La presente investigación tiene por objetivo contrastar la validez de la Paridad del Poder de Compra entre Perú y EEUU para el período 2000-2018. Para el análisis se emplea la metodología de Johansen para el contraste de relaciones de cointegración y la metodología VAR para la estimación de los parámetros de largo plazo. Los resultados revelan que no se cumple la hipótesis de la Paridad del Poder de Compra para la moneda peruana y el dólar en ninguna de sus formas funcionales planteadas, debido que los parámetros estimados para ambos casos son diferentes de la unidad rechazándose así la hipótesis de eficiencia de mercados en el largo plazo para el Perú y EEUU.Palabras clave: Cointegración, largo plazo, VAR, índice de precios. ABSTRACTPeru is a small economy and open to the world that depends heavily on transactions with its business partners and is exposed to financial shocks such as those created by the financial crisis of 2008. This research aims to verify the validity of the Purchasing Power Parity between Peru and the US for the period 2000-2018. For the analysis, the Johansen methodology is used for the contrast of cointegration relationships and the VAR methodology for the modification of long-term parameters. The results reveal that the hypothesis of the Purchasing Power Parity for the Peruvian currency and the dollar is not fulfilled in any of its proposed functional forms, because the parameters estimated for both cases are different from the unit rejected by the hypothesis of long-term market efficiency for Peru and the US.Keywords: Cointegration, long term, VAR, price index. Clasificación/Classification JEL: C32, C51, F41
Potato is the fourth most important food crop in the world that serves as a diet for the rich and the poor. Puno is the department with the highest production of potatoes in Peru, a country where more than 4,000 of the 5,000 existing varieties are found in the world and where the cultivation originated. The main objective of this research was to identify the best seasonal ARIMA model (or SARIMA) to model and forecasting potato production in Puno, using the Box-Jenkins methodology. The study considered monthly data on potato production in Puno between 2007 and 2017. The best model found for the modeling and forecasting of potato production in Puno is SARIMA (1, 1, 2)(1, 0, 1)12 using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Schwarz Criteria (SC). Finally, the twelve-month forecasting of potato production is presented to be used for policy decisions in the agricultural sector.
En el Peru, la balanza comercial ha jugado un papel protagonico en el desempeno economico, particularmente a partir del ano 2002, en que empieza a registrar superavits. Es asi que para el ano 2018 se registro un superavit de US$ 7,049 millones. Este dinamismo del comercio internacional mantiene al comercio exterior como uno de los principales motores de la economia peruana. El objetivo del estudio es probar la condicion Marshall-Lerner y la Curva-J para el Peru utilizando informacion mensual de los anos 2000 a 2018 obtenida del Banco Central de Reserva del Peru (BCRP). Para el analisis se emplea la metodologia de Johansen-Juselius y el Modelo Vector de Correccion de Error (MVCE). Los resultados revelaron el cumplimiento de la condicion Marshall-Lerner para el largo plazo y, haciendo uso de los diagramas de impulso-respuesta, se confirma que no se cumple el fenomeno de la Curva-J en la economia peruana.
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