The municipality of Pasto (Colombia) is an intermediate, emerging city of the Colombian Andes, which is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change due to its environmental conditions, mountainous morphology, moderately humid climate, and socio-economic structure. This research aims at identifying the impacts of historical trends in climate variables on the main urban elements of the municipality of Pasto. The study uses the correlational method to determine the relationships between climate variables and some impacted urban elements between 2004 and 2019. The adjusted models allow identifying possible trajectories in the evolution of urban variables affected by climate change, population growth, and culture. Results show that climate variability produces negative quadratic trajectories in crop yields and flood events; positive quadratic patterns in landslides, forest fires, the prevalence of acute diarrheal diseases (ADD), and acute respiratory infections (ARI); and linear patterns in water availability, livestock production and food security. In general, the urban variables show a departure from equilibrium when exposed to higher temperatures and precipitation, which affect the reliability of crop yields, food security, water availability, natural disasters, and public health in the municipality of Pasto.
The current trends of climate change will increase people's exposure to urban risks related to events such as landslides, floods, forest fires, food production, health, and water availability, which are stochastic and very localized in nature. This research uses a Bayesian network (BN) approach to analyze the intensity of such urban risks for the Andean municipality of Pasto, Colombia, under climate change scenarios. The stochastic BN model is linked to correlational models and local scenarios of representative concentration trajectories (RCP) to project the possible risks to which the municipality of Pasto will be exposed in the future. The results show significant risks in crop yields, food security, water availability and disaster risks, but no significant risks on the incidence of acute diarrheal diseases (ADD) and acute respiratory infections (ARI), whereas positive outcomes are likely to occur in livestock production, influenced by population growth. The advantage of the BN approach is the possibility of updating beliefs in the probabilities of occurrence of events, especially in developing, intermediate cities with information‐limited contexts.
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