TX 75083-3836, U.S.A., fax 01-972-952-9435. AbstractThe Orocual Field is made up of four structurally compartmentalized fault blocks. The upper two, San Juan 3 (SJ3) and San Juan 6 (SJ6) are more developed. The lower block structures, San Juan 7 (SJ7) and San Juan 9 (SJ9), are more than 1500 feet deeper and are separated by a major thrust fault. These reservoirs primarily consist of light condensate. Recent development suggests that significant potential exists in the SJ6 and SJ7 areas. The difficulty in defining the hydrocarbon column associated with each block, because of limited development, shows significant sensitivity in calculating oil reserves. The San Juan formation is a naturally fractured sandstone reservoir, and has historically produced low sustained rates of less than 1000 BOPD. New techniques in the area have been studied to increase sustained rates to at least 3000 BOPD.This project was designed to develop a method to analyze the probable results of a development program. A reservoir simulation model was constructed as part of an integrated study focused on geostatistics modeling of tight matrix and fracture systems to predict production by extending the proven area of the field. The producing areas have limited data, and previous studies did not consider the fractured nature of the reservoir. The application of geostatistical methods for reservoir characterization, and the use of simulation to assess the static model heterogeneity were identified objectives. The complex structure and fluid columns add to the uncertainty. Various sensitivities were run by applying different constraints to the permeability model, variance in fluid definitions, and well design.The reservoir simulation model shows sensitivity to matrix characterization and less to fracture characterization. This sensitivity is related to well productivity as a function of matrix permeability. The matrix is so tight that a multiple increase of permeability has little effect on well productivity. The permeability appears to be predominately from fractures. Fracture density or fracture permeability shows less effect to change well productivity than matrix permeability. Over 100 simulations were run to predict well and reservoir behavior. Results allow realistic assessment of risk in both reserves and production and to rank alternatives.
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