Effects of climate change are particularly important in the Mediterranean Biodiversity hotspot where rising temperatures and drought are negatively affecting several plant taxa, including endemic species. Assisted colonisation (AC) represents a useful tool for reducing the effect of climate change on endemic plant species threatened by climate change. We combined species distribution models (SDMs) for 188 taxa endemic to Italy with the IUCN red listing range loss threshold under criterion A (30%) to define: (a) the number of AC (measured as 2 × 2 km grid cells that should be occupied by new populations, i.e. grid cells = new populations) required to fully compensate for predicted range loss and to halt the decline below the 30% of range loss; (b) The number of cells necessary to compensate for range loss was calculated as the number of currently occupied cells lost under future climate due to unsuitable conditions. We used two representative concentration pathways, +2.6 and +8.5 W/m2, optimistic and pessimistic scenarios respectively. Availability of suitable areas for AC was also assessed within the current species distribution and within protected areas. Under the optimistic scenario, no taxa would lose more than 30% of their range and AC would not be required. Under the pessimistic scenario, roughly the 90% of taxa showed a cell loss higher than 30%. Eight taxa were predicted to lose >95% of their range. For these species, AC was required from 13 to 16 new populations (=13–16 grid cells) per taxon to cap the range loss at 30%. For currently VU or EN species, an average number of 32–35 AC attempts would be necessary to fully compensate their range loss under a pessimistic scenario. Suitable recipient sites within protected areas falling in their projected range were identified, allowing for short‐distance AC. Synthesis. Combining species distribution models and red listing thresholds under Criterion A has enabled the strategic planning of multiple species assisted colonisation minimising the effort in terms of new populations to be created and maximising the conservation benefit in terms of range loss compensation.
Santolina is a plant genus of dwarf aromatic shrubs that includes about 26 species native to the western Mediterranean Basin. In Corsica and Sardinia, two of the main islands of the Mediterranean, Santolina corsica (tetraploid) and S. insularis (hexaploid) are reported. Along with the cultivated pentaploid S. chamaecyparissus, these species form a group of taxa that is hard to distinguish only by morphology. Molecular (using ITS, trnH-psbA, trnL-trnF, trnQ-rps16, rps15-ycf1, psbM-trnD, and trnS-trnG), cypsela morpho-colorimetric, morphometric, and niche similarity analyses were conducted to investigate the diversity of plants belonging to this species group. Our results confute the current taxonomic hypothesis and suggest considering S. corsica and S. insularis as a single species. Moreover, molecular and morphometric results highlight the strong affinity between S. chamaecyparissus and the Santolina populations endemic to Corsica and Sardinia. Finally, the populations from south-western Sardinia, due to their high differentiation in the studied plastid markers and the different climatic niche with respect to all the other populations, could be considered as an evolutionary significant unit.
Three subspecies of Armeria arenaria are reported from Italy, two of which are considered endemic to the Apennines. The taxonomic value of these two taxa (A. arenaria subsp. marginata and A. arenaria subsp. apennina) is unclear. Moreover, the relationships between A. arenaria subsp. praecox and Northern Italian populations—currently ascribed to A. arenaria subsp. arenaria—have never been addressed. Accordingly, we used an integrated taxonomic approach, including morphometry, seed morpho–colorimetry, karyology, molecular systematics (psbA–trnH, trnQ–rps16, trnF–trnL, trnL–rpl32, and ITS region), and comparative niche analysis. According to our results, French–Northern Italian populations are clearly distinct from Apennine populations. In the first group, there is evidence which allows the recognition of A. arenaria s.str. (not occurring in Italy) and A. arenaria subsp. praecox. In the second group, the two putative taxa endemic to the Northern Apennines cannot be separated, so a single subspecies is here recognized: A. arenaria subsp. marginata.
A lectotype is designated for the name Dianthus virgineus. The relationships between D. virgineus, D. caryophyllus var. caryophyllus, and D. caryophyllus var. inodorus are analyzed. Dianthus virgineus is the oldest available name that applies to a species complex that is often referred to as D. sylvestris or a broad circumscription of the cultivated ornamental D. caryophyllus. The taxonomic consequences are discussed, and the need for further studies is highlighted.
Santolina is a clear example of a genus lying in an alpha‐taxonomic status, with species accepted only based on qualitative morphological descriptions. In particular, taxonomic issues still need to be resolved for Santolina populations from southern France and north‐eastern Spain, and so, we carried out an integrative taxonomic study involving morphometrics, cypsela morphometrics, niche overlap, and phylogenetic analysis based on six plastid markers (trnH‐psbA, trnL‐trnF, trnQ‐rps16, rps15‐ycf1, psbM‐trnD, and trnS‐trnG). Our results revealed that the current taxonomic circumscription is not adequate. In particular, the Santolina populations at the foothills of eastern Pyrenees, previously included in the variability of Santolina benthamiana, have to be considered as a distinct species, namely, Santolina intricata. In addition, despite their high phylogenetic relatedness, S. benthamiana s.str. and Santolina ericoides can still be considered as distinct species due to clear morphological and ecological differentiation. Finally, we demonstrated that three different subspecies can be recognized in Santolina decumbens, a species endemic to Provence. For one of these subspecies, due to its extremely restricted distribution range, conservation issues are pointed out.
Species distribution models are the most widely used tool to predict species distributions for species conservation and assessment of climate change impact. However, they usually do not consider intraspecific ecological variation exhibited by many species. Overlooking the potential differentiation among groups of populations may lead to misplacing any conservation actions. This issue may be particularly relevant in species in which few populations with potential local adaptation occur, as in species with disjunct populations. Here, we used ecological niche modeling to analyze how the projections of current and future climatically suitable areas of 12 plant species can be affected using the whole taxa occurrences compared to occurrences from geographically disjunct populations. Niche analyses suggest that usually the disjunct group of populations selects the climatic conditions as similar as possible to the other according to climate availability. Integrating intraspecific variability only slightly increases models’ ability to predict species occurrences. However, it results in different predictions of the magnitude of range change. In some species, integrating or not integrating intraspecific variability may lead to opposite trend in projected range change. Our results suggest that integrating intraspecific variability does not strongly improve overall models’ accuracy, but it can result in considerably different conclusions about future range change. Consequently, accounting for intraspecific differentiation may enable the detection of potential local adaptations to new climate and so to design targeted conservation strategies.
Climate change is dramatically threatening biodiversity. Narrowly distributed species are especially exposed to extinction risk due to their narrow ecological niche. We used Species Distribution Models at fine spatial resolution (50 m) to investigate changes in the distribution of three range-restricted species of Santolina (Asteraceae) endemic to the Mediterranean Basin (S. decumbens, S. ligustica, S. pinnata). We assessed the future potential range under an optimistic and a pessimistic scenario, and analysed distribution change taking into account three different areas: the distributional range (calculated as convex hull), an area 5 km larger than the distributional range, and a buffer (1 km) around occurrences. Santolina ligustica is expected to dramatically reduce its range under both scenarios, S. decumbens is expected to increase its range under both scenarios and S. pinnata is expected to dramatically reduce its range under pessimistic scenario and to increase it under optimistic one. Moreover, under the optimistic scenario, S. ligustica and S. pinnata show a very high range loss in all areas but the range gain is major in the largest area than in the other two areas. This result suggests that, in the future, suitable areas will occur mainly outside of the current distributional range and that assisted colonization might be necessary to assure species survival. Differently the third species has a lower range loss and higher range gain within the distributional range and in the buffer around occurrences, suggesting the possibility of survival in microrefugia within its distributional range despite a wide reduction in suitable habitat. These results might help to design strategies for species conservation in face of future climate change.
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