Predictive species distribution models are mostly based on statistical dependence between environmental and distributional data and therefore may fail to account for physiological limits and biological interactions that are fundamental when modelling species distributions under future climate conditions. Here, we developed a state-of-the-art method integrating biological theory with survey and experimental data in a way that allows us to explicitly model both physical tolerance limits of species and inherent natural variability in regional conditions and thereby improve the reliability of species distribution predictions under future climate conditions. By using a macroalga-herbivore association (Fucus vesiculosus - Idotea balthica) as a case study, we illustrated how salinity reduction and temperature increase under future climate conditions may significantly reduce the occurrence and biomass of these important coastal species. Moreover, we showed that the reduction of herbivore occurrence is linked to reduction of their host macroalgae. Spatial predictive modelling and experimental biology have been traditionally seen as separate fields but stronger interlinkages between these disciplines can improve species distribution projections under climate change. Experiments enable qualitative prior knowledge to be defined and identify cause-effect relationships, and thereby better foresee alterations in ecosystem structure and functioning under future climate conditions that are not necessarily seen in projections based on non-causal statistical relationships alone.

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Intensifying environmental changes due to climate change affect marine species worldwide. Herein, we experimentally tested if the combination of forecasted warming and hyposalinity adversely affected growth, receptacle formation, and photosynthesis of three marginal populations of the brown alga Fucus from the northern Baltic Sea. Growth was not impaired by the projected consequences of climate change but genotypes varied in their responses, suggesting existence of genetic variation in phenotypic plasticity. Climate change further prevented receptacle formation, implying that Fucus fail to reproduce sexually. Photosynthesis was not affected by climate change but varied among populations. Our results show that Fucus populations photosynthesized, grew, and survived well under the projected climate change but their sexual reproduction ceased. This suggests that the marginal populations tested herein are resilient to future conditions but only if asexual reproduction enables them to proliferate.

BackgroundLarval settlement and intra-specific interactions during the recruitment phase are crucial in determining the distribution and density of sessile marine populations. Marine caves are confined and stable habitats. As such, they provide a natural laboratory to study the settlement and recruitment processes in sessile invertebrates, including the valuable Mediterranean red coral Corallium rubrum. In the present study, the spatial and temporal variability of red coral settlers in an underwater cave was investigated by demographic and genetic approaches.MethodsSixteen PVC tiles were positioned on the walls and ceiling of the Colombara Cave, Ligurian Sea, and recovered after twenty months. A total of 372 individuals of red coral belonging to two different reproductive events were recorded. Basal diameter, height, and number of polyps were measured, and seven microsatellites loci were used to evaluate the genetic relationships among individuals and the genetic structure.ResultsSignificant differences in the colonization rate were observed both between the two temporal cohorts and between ceiling and walls. No genetic structuring was observed between cohorts. Overall, high levels of relatedness among individuals were found.ConclusionThe results show that C. rubrumindividuals on tiles are highly related at very small spatial scales, suggesting that nearby recruits are likely to be sibs. Self-recruitment and the synchronous settlement of clouds of larvae could be possible explanations for the observed pattern.

Temperate reefs are among the most threatened marine habitats due to impacts caused by high density of human settlements, coastal development, pollution, fisheries and tourism. Networks of marine protected areas (MPAs) are an important tool for ensuring long-term health and conservation of ecological processes in the marine environment. Design of the MPA network has to be based on deep understanding of spatial patterns of species distribution, and on the make-up of connectivity among populations. Most benthic invertebrates are sessile and/or sedentary in the adult phase, and their dispersal relies mainly on the gametes and/or larval behaviours. Genetic markers allow us to quantify gene flow and structuring among populations, and to infer patterns of genetic connectivity. Based on the information available in the peer reviewed literature on genetic connectivity in benthic invertebrates of temperate MPAs, we provide a comment about the gaps and the needs. Moreover, we propose a rationale to plan and optimise future studies on this topic. A conceptual framework for planning effective studies on genetic connectivity in an MPAs network is provided, including general recommendations on sampling design, key species and molecular markers to use.

To predict the effects of climate change, we first need information on both the current tolerance ranges of species and their future adaptive potential. Adaptive responses may originate either in genetic variation or in phenotypic plasticity, but the relative importance of these factors is poorly understood. Here, we tested the tolerance of Fucus radicans to the combination of hyposalinity and warming projected by climate models for 2070–2099. We measured the growth and survival responses of thalli in both current and future conditions, focusing on variations in tolerance among and within different clonal lineages. Survival was 32% lower in future than in current conditions, but the weight and length of the thalli which survived was respectively 267% and 178% higher when exposed to future conditions. The relatively high tolerance to the future conditions suggests that F. radicans is likely to persist in its current distributional range, which is limited to the Gulf of Bothia and Estonian coast in the Baltic Sea. Furthermore, this species may be able to expand its distribution southward and replace its congener F. vesiculosus, which, in previous studies, has not tolerated the future conditions as well. In addition, we discovered variation in tolerance to future conditions within one of the clonal lineages, which have been hitherto presumed to lack adaptive variation. The discovery of intra‐clonal phenotypic plasticity means that this alga has the potential for adaptive responses to climate change, which may be the key to the future persistence of F. radicans in the Baltic Sea.

Background: Rockweeds are among the most important foundation species of temperate rocky littoral shores. In the Baltic Sea, the rockweed Fucus vesiculosus is distributed along a decreasing salinity gradient from the North Atlantic entrance to the low-salinity regions in the north-eastern margins, thus, demonstrating a remarkable tolerance to hyposalinity. The underlying mechanisms for this tolerance are still poorly understood. Here, we exposed F. vesiculosus from two range-margin populations to the hyposaline (2.5 PSU -practical salinity unit) conditions that are projected to occur in the region by the end of this century as a result of climate change. We used transcriptome analysis (RNA-seq) to determine the gene expression patterns associated with hyposalinity acclimation, and examined the variation in these patterns between the sampled populations.Results: Hyposalinity induced different responses in the two populations: in one, only 26 genes were differentially expressed between salinity treatments, while the other population demonstrated up-or downregulation in 3072 genes. In the latter population, the projected future hyposalinity induced an acute response in terms of antioxidant production. Genes associated with membrane composition and structure were also heavily involved, with the upregulation of fatty acid and actin production, and the downregulation of ion channels and alginate pathways. Changes in gene expression patterns clearly indicated an inhibition of the photosynthetic machinery, with a consequent downregulation of carbohydrate production. Simultaneously, energy consumption increased, as revealed by the upregulation of genes associated with respiration and ATP synthesis. Overall, the genes that demonstrated the largest increase in expression were ribosomal proteins involved in translation pathways. The fixation rate of SNP:s was higher within genes responding to hyposalinity than elsewhere in the transcriptome. Conclusions: The high fixation rate in the genes coding for salinity acclimation mechanisms implies strong selection for them. The among-population differentiation that we observed in the transcriptomic response to hyposalinity stress suggests that populations of F. vesiculosus may differ in their tolerance to future desalination, possibly as a result of local adaptation to salinity conditions within the Baltic Sea. These results emphasise the importance of considering interspecific genetic variation when evaluating the consequences of environmental change.