No abstract

A method is introduced for stochastic rainfall downscaling that can be easily applied to the precipitation forecasts provided by meteorological models. Our approach, called the Rainfall Filtered Autoregressive Model (RainFARM), is based on the nonlinear transformation of a Gaussian random field, and it conserves the information present in the rainfall fields at larger scales. The procedure is tested on two radar-measured intense rainfall events, one at midlatitude and the other in the Tropics, and it is shown that the synthetic fields generated by RainFARM have small-scale statistical properties that are consistent with those of the measured precipitation fields. The application of the disaggregation procedure to an example meteorological forecast illustrates how the method can be implemented in operational practice.

Gaining a deeper physical understanding of the high-impact weather events which repeatedly affected the Western Mediterranean Basin in recent years on the coastal areas of easternSpain, southern France and northern Italy is strongly motivated by the social request to reduce the casualties and the economical impacts due to these highly localized and hardly predictable phenomena.In October 2014, an extreme event hit Genoa city centre, less than 3 years after a very similar event, which occurred in November 2011.Taking advantage of the availability of both observational data and modelling results at the micro-α meteorological scale, this article provides insights about the triggering mechanism and the subsequent spatio-temporal evolution of the Genoa 2014 back-building Mesoscale Convective System. The major finding is the effect of a virtual mountain created over the Ligurian Sea by the convergence of a cold and dry jet outflowing from the Po valley and a warm and moist low-level southeasterly jet within the planetary boundary layer.