In real-world Lynch syndrome management, incomplete clinical follow-up was the major barrier to do genetic testing. Targeted screening costs 2- to 7.5-fold less than universal and rarely misses Lynch syndrome cases. Future changes in testing costs will likely change the optimal algorithm.

With advances in organ matching and preventing acute graft-versus-host-disease (aGvHD), chronic graft-versus-host disease (cGvHD) following allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) has become a focus of transplant-related morbidity and mortality. Given that cGvHD often presents years following a transplant, our objective was to estimate its burden of cost resulting from allogeneic HSCT based on published estimates of incidence, morbidity, the value of lost work time and survivorship. Our choice of a ten-year time horizon is novel to the field of rare disease and was determined to be meaningful after consultations with present co-authors, including five physicians, one of whom is a transplant surgeon. A total of 44 450 cGvHD patients in the United States were estimated to require treatment over the next decade (from 2015 to 2025). This estimate is based on the last 5 years of trends reported in the transplant registries. What is not reported in any registry is that these patients will accrue a total of 605 631 years of lost wages, a collective lost productivity that will cost society over $27 Billion in the decade ahead: more than five times ($27B vs. $5.2B) the estimated ten-year cost of treating the condition.

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Background: End Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) accounts for 9% of Medicare spending, with the beneficiaries suffering from ESRD costing 7-9 times more than the average. This population is expected to continue to grow as a portion of Medicare beneficiaries. To provide clinicians and administrators with a greater understanding of the combined costs associated with the multiple critical care pathways for End Stage Renal Disease we have developed a model to predict ESRD populations through 2020. Methods: A system dynamics model was designed to project the prevalence and total costs of ESRD treatment for the United States through 2020. Incidence, transplant and mortality rates were modeled for 35 age and primary diagnosis subgroups coursing through different ESRD critical care pathways. Using a web interface that allows users to alter certain combinations of parameters, several demonstration analysis were run to predict the impact of three policy interventions on the future of ESRD care. Results: The model was successfully calibrated against the output of United States Renal Data System’s (USRDS) prior predictions and tested by comparing the output to historical data. Our model predicts that the ESRD patient population will continue to rise, with total prevalence increasing to 829,000 by 2020. This would be a 30% increase from the reported 2010 prevalence. Conclusions: Findings suggest that clinical care and policy changes can be leveraged to more effectively and efficiently manage the inevitable growth of ESRD patient populations. Patients can be shifted to more effective treatments, while planning integrating systems thinking can save Medicare’s ESRD program billions over the next decade.

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The addition of user-modifiable projected reimbursement revenue calculation is a valuable tool that expands the contribution of economic modeling to hospital formulary decision-making. PCN40 UNiversal versUs TargeTed sCreeNiNg of ColoN CaNCers for lyNCh syNdrome: CosT aNd diagNosTiC effeCTiveNess aNalyses Based oN CliNiCal exPerieNCe

In health economics, costs can be divided into both direct and indirect categories. Direct costs tend to consist of medical costs, which are those directly attributed to health care interventions (e.g., hospitalizations, pharmaceuticals, devices), and non-medical direct costs such as monitoring and professional caregiving. Indirect costs tend to comprise those related to lost productivity due to illness (or treatment), burden on systems outside of the healthcare domain, and other costs that can sometimes outweigh the entire sum of direct healthcare costs. The most common life-threatening complication of lung and hematopoietic stem-cell transplantation (HSCT) is bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome (BOS). BOS is currently diagnosed as a 20% decline in the forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) from the best (baseline) post-transplantation value, and is a major cause of morbidity and mortality amongst lung and stem cell transplant patients. BOS affects half of all lung transplant patients within the first 5 years post-transplant, rising to the majority of patients (~80%) within the first decade following transplant. We estimated both direct and indirect costs for the first 10 years following BOS diagnosis, a viewpoint that highlights a tremendous imbalance between healthcare and non-healthcare costs. The lost workforce resulting from BOS-related infirmity will cost society more than $3.7 Billion over the next decade, a figure that is more than double the estimated 10-year cost of treating BOS ($1.4B), including diagnostics, immunosuppressives, and additional complications. As such, BOS is estimated to present a burden of cost that must be evaluated in a new light to include the wider societal perspective.