Maximum flows are often estimated from flood frequency analysis, by means of the statistical fitting of a theoretical probability distribution to maximum annual flow data. However, because of the limitations imposed by the practice of at-site flow measurement, empirical models are applied as the rating curve for estimating streamflow. These curves are approximations of the actual flows and incorporate different sources of uncertainty, especially in the extrapolation portions. These uncertainties are propagated in the frequency analysis and influence the estimated quantiles. For better understanding and describing the influence of the stage-discharge uncertainty in this process, the results of Bayesian rating curve modeling, which considers the physical knowledge of the gauging station as prior information, were combined with Bayesian flood frequency analysis under asymptotic extreme value theory. The method was applied to the Acorizal stream gauging station, located in the interior of the state of Mato Grosso - BR. The main results suggested that, although the uncertainties of the rating curve can be relevant in the estimation of maximum flow quantiles, the uncertainties arising from finite-sample inference might exert greater impacts on the flow credibility intervals even for moderate sample sizes.
The impacts caused by flood waves due to dam ruptures usually cause irreversible damages to the resident population, and, the loss of body equilibrium in floods contributes to aggravate this scenario. In this context, this work aimed to analyse the influence of consideration of physical mechanisms that cause instability in the human body on the definition of hazard zones. Therefore, it was developed simulation of the propagation of the flood wave due to the hypothetical rupture of Santa Helena Dam in Bahia, using the hydrodynamic model HEC-RAS. The results of flow velocities and heights were related and compared to different criteria of hazard zonings and mechanisms that cause body instability. It was verified that the consideration of instability mechanisms of the human body can contribute to hazard management, through the knowledge of areas in which different individuals may topple or slide. It was confirmed that in supercritical flow regimes is more likely for the individual to slide and that in subcritical regimes the individual will topple. Moreover, the consideration of parameters such as buoyancy force and the angle related to the human body's adaptive ability in a flooding influence on the definition of zones.
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