A laboratory study of the natural waters of the Gulf of Finland near the coastal zones of the main large beaches of the southern coast on the content of pollutants was conducted to identify the main pollutants exceeding the maximum permissible concentrations in the waters of the southern coast of the Gulf of Finland, the allocation of sources of these substances and describe the prospects for bringing these indicators to regulatory concentrations. Laboratory tests were carried out at 4 points: the first point was taken in the dam near the village of Martyshkino, the second is taken in the coastal zone of the beach of the village of Bolshaya Izhora, the third in the beach area, the former pier fish factory, the fourth was taken in the coastal zone of the beach of Sosnovy Bor. The results of laboratory research on presence of polluting substances of natural waters of the coastal zone of the Gulf of Finland are given. The results of the study of water quality at these points showed how and what human activity affects the chemical composition of the natural waters of the Gulf of Finland within the boundaries of the southern coast. A comparative analysis of the results of the study of the waters of the Gulf of Finland, given the statistics of exceedances for 2016-2017. Bringing these substances to the standards of maximum permissible concentrations will give the necessary water quality in the Gulf of Finland, suitable for recreational purposes, including swimming and fishing. A description was given of the main sources that contribute these pollutants to the waters of the Gulf of Finland. The article describes the main problems, the solution of which is necessary to bring the quality of the Gulf of Finland to the normative. The article also describes background, natural pollution peculiar to St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region, reduction of which to the standards established by the law is impossible in consequence of the specifics of the composing soils of this area.
The article was used the methods of mathematical modeling in predicting the processes of transformation of the coastal zone as an alternative to hydraulic modeling. The processes of coastal zone reformation take place in conditions of significant uncertainty due to a variety of active factors of different physical nature and impossibility of accurate quantitative measurement of some parameters. Studies in such unfavorable conditions relate to complex problems, for which the use of deterministic mathematical methods is limited. In the absence of the necessary information in such situations, expert information is widely used. Currently, a method (method) of constructing logical-linguistic models based on expert knowledge has been developed, which is successfully used in various fields of science and technology, including for solving environmental problems. The essence of the method consists in the synthesis of fuzzy set theory elements in the form of linguistic variables and the theory of planning experiments. This article presents the methodology, i.e. a set of methods for constructing a logicallinguistic model to describe changes in the Gulf of Finland coastal zone under the influence of external factors. Thus adequacy of the received model is confirmed by full-scale observations in several characteristic points. The correlation coefficient between the actual data and the calculated values was 0.957. The constructed model is universal and gives the chance of the analysis of the processes occurring on separate sites, and forecasting of transformation of a coastal zone.
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