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Projections of grain production for the states in the North Centra! and Southern Regions were made for 1984, 1989, and 1999; also, consumption projections for 1985, 1990, and 2000. The estimates of grain production and livestock consumption were used to calculate the marketable grain surpluses (or deficits) for 1985, 1990, and 2000 for the states in the two regions. Estimates of grain production in states outside the two regions are also included, as well as production and consumption figures for the mid-1970's. This study shows that future grain production will require additional transportation services because of higher production, greater specialization, and larger export demands. A trend toward greater specialization in livestock production over the next two decades is also indicated, with some relative shifts among regions both in the production of grains and in the raising of livestock.

Purchase of grain dryers by farmers can be explained using a threshold theory of decision in which a reaction occurs only after the strength of the stimuli increases beyond the farmers' reaction threshold. Estimates of the causal relationships in this dichotomous decision model were obtained by using the probit technique with data from a farmer panel. The results provide an explanation of differences in the number of dryers purchased by farmers in various classes and regions. It also provides a procedure for predicting dryer ownership and purchases of dryers as an aid to forward planning by distributors of drying equipment.

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