The transition towards higher shares of electricity generation from renewable energy sources is shown to be significantly slower in developing countries with low-cost fossil fuel resources. Integrating conventional power plants with concentrated solar power may facilitate the transition towards a more sustainable power production. In this paper, a novel natural gas-fired integrated solar combined-cycle power plant was proposed, evaluated, and optimized with exergy-based methods. The proposed system utilizes the advantages of combined-cycle power plants, direct steam generation, and linear Fresnel collectors to provide 475 MW baseload power in Aswan, Egypt. The proposed system is found to reach exergetic efficiencies of 50.7% and 58.1% for day and night operations, respectively. In economic analysis, a weighted average levelized cost of electricity of 40.0 $/MWh based on the number of day and night operation hours is identified. In exergoeconomic analysis, the costs of thermodynamic inefficiencies were identified and compared to the component cost rates. Different measures for component cost reduction and performance enhancement were identified and applied. Using iterative exergoeconomic optimization, the levelized cost of electricity is reduced to a weighted average of 39.2 $/MWh and a specific investment cost of 1088 $/kW. Finally, the proposed system is found to be competitive with existing integrated solar combined-cycle plants, while allowing a significantly higher solar share of 17% of the installed capacity.
Missing financial and regulatory frameworks lead to low development and stagnating costs of concentrated solar thermal technology. Nevertheless, in locations with high direct normal irradiance such as the MENA region, the technology could become competitive, being promised a learning rate of 10-20 %, and boost local economies. This study aims to identify potential business cases and evaluate the increased technology's investment likelihood in the region, focusing on Egypt. A thorough market assessment on the structure, regulatory framework, demand, and potential revenues was conducted for the power and process heating sector. A SWOT analysis was performed considering the local context and competing technologies. Egypt was shown to offer local manufacturing potential, regulatory framework and renewable energy strategies, facilitating the technology's deployment. Moreover, the market is already open for private investment and selected international funds are directed towards CSP development. High initial technology cost, subsidized fuel and electricity prices for industry, alongside lack of long-term financial incentives and awareness of potential long-term benefits for the economy were identified as the most significant threats. High solar heat demand for industrial processes and large potential for concentrated solar heat application were identified. Yet, the market is decentralized and the processes are very diverse, moreover retrofitting may pose risks alongside the high upfront investment and additional land costs, which makes concentrated solar heat applications less attractive for the Egyptian industrial sector. Hence, for concentrated solar technology deployment, financial incentives and a regulatory framework specifically directed towards the technology would be necessary.
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