Background COVID-19 has affected care home residents internationally, but detailed information on outbreaks is scarce. We aimed to describe the evolution of outbreaks of COVID-19 in all care homes in one large health region in Scotland. MethodsWe did a population analysis of testing, cases, and deaths in care homes in the National Health Service (NHS) Lothian health region of the UK. We obtained data for COVID-19 testing (PCR testing of nasopharyngeal swabs for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 [SARS-CoV-2]) and deaths (COVID-19-related and non-COVID-19related), and we analysed data by several variables including type of care home, number of beds, and locality. Outcome measures were timing of outbreaks, number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in care home residents, care home characteristics associated with the presence of an outbreak, and deaths of residents in both care homes and hospitals. We calculated excess deaths (both COVID-19-related and non-COVID-19-related), which we defined as the sum of deaths over and above the historical average in the same period over the past 5 years. FindingsBetween March 10 and Aug 2, 2020, residents at 189 care homes (5843 beds) were tested for COVID-19 when symptomatic. A COVID-19 outbreak was confirmed at 69 (37%) care homes, of which 66 (96%) were care homes for older people. The size of care homes for older people was strongly associated with a COVID-19 outbreak (odds ratio per 20-bed increase 3•35, 95% CI 1•99-5•63). 907 confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection were recorded during the study period, and 432 COVID-19-related deaths. 229 (25%) COVID-19-related cases and 99 (24%) COVID-related deaths occurred in five (3%) of 189 care homes, and 441 (49%) cases and 207 (50%) deaths were in 13 (7%) care homes. 411 (95%) COVID-19-related deaths occurred in the 69 care homes with a confirmed COVID-19 outbreak, 19 (4%) deaths were in hospital, and two (<1%) were in one of the 120 care homes without a confirmed COVID-19 outbreak. At the 69 care homes with a confirmed COVID-19 outbreak, 74 excess non-COVID-19related deaths were reported, whereas ten non-COVID-19-related excess deaths were observed in the 120 care homes without a confirmed COVID-19 outbreak. 32 fewer non-COVID-19-related deaths than expected were reported among care home residents in hospital.Interpretation The effect of COVID-19 on care homes has been substantial but concentrated in care homes with known outbreaks. A key implication from our findings is that, if community incidence of COVID-19 increases again, many care home residents will be susceptible. Shielding care home residents from potential sources of SARS-CoV-2 infection, and ensuring rapid action to minimise outbreak size if infection is introduced, will be important for any second wave.

Vaccine hesitancy is increasing and failure to vaccinate is well-recognised in Europe as a contributing factor to outbreaks of infectious diseases. In Lothian and Scotland, low vaccine uptake has been seen in migrants -notably in the Polish group who have arrived since 2004. The recent Vaccine Confidence in European Union report highlights a concerning recent decline in vaccine confidence in Poland.We held three focus groups containing 13 Polish women about the childhood vaccination programme in Lothian, with specific focus on influenza and Human Papillomavirus vaccinations. Key emergent themes were: trust in the national vaccination policy, trust in the vaccination providers (health professionals), trust in the individual vaccines, balancing the risk of disease, and language and communication.Polish norms, beliefs and behaviours shape how Polish migrants navigate the UK health system and its vaccination programme. While not confident in the Scottish primary care model and its generalist practitioners, the participants liked the ethos of informed consent in Scotland and compared this favourably with the compulsory vaccination policy in Poland. There was a belief that vaccines in Scotland were of higher quality than Poland and with fewer adverse effects.Respondents reported returning to Poland for specialist clinical appointments and diagnostic testing. They regularly access Polish clinical expertise and their opinions about health are influenced by Polish friends and family. They say they have difficulty finding official UK Government and health authority vaccination material and often access Polish media, online resources and information., They are familiar with antivaccination activities in Poland.Consequently, there are important unmet information needs for this group of parents who may not be making truly informed choices about vaccination. This requires further investigation especially as migration continues and declining immunisation uptake is reported in many countries across Europe.

In January to February 2014, 16 hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) cases were identified in Edinburgh, United Kingdom. All presented with atypical features, with most (n=13) resembling eczema herpeticum or chickenpox. Coxsackievirus A6 (CV-A6) was identified in all the typed cases (n=11). As atypical forms of HFMD associated with CV-A6 are likely to emerge throughout Europe, clinicians should be alert to unusual clinical presentations of HFMD and virologists aware of effective diagnostic testing and enterovirus typing methods.

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A national UK surveillance system currently uses data from a health helpline (NHS Direct) in an attempt to provide early warning of a bio-terrorist attack, or an outbreak caused by a more common infection. To test this syndromic surveillance system we superimposed data from a historical outbreak of cryptosporidiosis onto a statistical model of NHS Direct call data. We modelled whether calls about diarrhoea (a proxy for cryptosporidiosis) exceeded a statistical threshold, thus alerting the surveillance team to the outbreak. On the date that the public health team were first notified of the outbreak our model predicted a 4% chance of detection when we assumed that one-twentieth of cryptosporidiosis cases telephoned the helpline. This rose to a 72% chance when we assumed nine-tenths of cases telephoned. The NHS Direct surveillance system is currently unlikely to detect an event similar to the cryptosporidiosis outbreak used here and may be most suited to detecting more widespread rises in syndromes in the community, as previously demonstrated. However, the expected rise in NHS Direct call rates, should improve early warning of outbreaks using call data.

SUMMARY A placebo controlled, double blind study of aminohydroxypropylidene bisphosphonate (APD), given by monthly intravenous infusion, was conducted in 40 patients with rheumatoid arthritis. Biochemical markers of increased bone resorption, such as fasting urinary calcium/ creatinine ratio and hydroxyproline/creatinine ratio, were suppressed significantly in the APD group to approximately 50% and 60% of the pretreatment level respectively, and serum calcium fell transiently after the first APD infusion. There was no significant effect on disease activity in either the APD or placebo groups as judged by clinical (grip strength, morning stiffness, visual analogue score) or laboratory (haemoglobin, platelet count, erythrocyte sedimentation rate, C reactive protein) criteria. An exception was the articular index which improved to a similar degree in both groups, falling from (mean (SEM)) 13X8 (1X8) to 7-2 (2-2) in the APD group and from 13-7 (1-9) to 6-8 (1.5) in the placebo group. Radiological progression occurred to a similar degree in both groups as assessed by the Sharp index (mean (SEM) 86 (13-1) v 95 (12-9)-APD group; 103 (15-1) v 110 (15-8)-placebo group), but there was no significant change in the Larsen index in either group (mean (SEM) 53 (4-2) v 57 (3.8)-APD; 62 (5-8) v 63 (5-6)-placebo). The lack of effect on radiological progression in the APD group indicates that focal erosive disease may either have progressed as the result of a non-osteoclast related mechanism, or that the intensity of bone resorption was too great to be inhibited by the doses of APD used. The biochemical response to APD presumably reflected inhibition of bone resorption at other sites, suggesting that further studies of the effects of bisphosphates on periarticular and systemic osteoporosis in rheumatoid arthritis may be of interest.

Background: COVID-19 has had large impact on care-home residents internationally. This study systematically examines care-home outbreaks of COVID-19 in a large Scottish health board. Methods: Analysis of testing, cases and deaths using linked care-home, testing and mortality data for 189 care-homes with 5843 beds in a large Scottish Health Board up to 15/06/20. Findings: 70 (37.0%) of care-homes experienced a COVID-19 outbreak, 66 of which were in care-homes for older people where care-home size was strongly associated with outbreaks (OR per 20-bed increase 3.50, 95%CI 2.06 to 5.94). There were 852 confirmed cases and 419 COVID-related deaths, 401 (95.7%) of which occurred in care-homes with an outbreak, 16 (3.8%) in hospital, and two in the 119 care-homes without a known outbreak. For non-COVID related deaths, there were 73 excess deaths in care-homes with an outbreak, but no excess deaths in care-homes without an outbreak, and 24 fewer deaths than expected of care-home residents in hospital. A quarter of COVID-19 related cases and deaths occurred in five (2.6%) care-homes, and half in 13 (6.9%) care-homes. Interpretation: The large impact on excess deaths appears to be primarily a direct effect of COVID-19, with cases and deaths are concentrated in a minority of care homes. A key implication is that there is a large pool of susceptible residents if community COVID-19 incidence increases again. Shielding residents from potential sources of infection and rapid action into minimise outbreak size where infection is introduced will be critical in any wave 2. Funding: Not externally funded.

An outbreak of mumps within a student population in Scotland was investigated to assess the effect of previous vaccination on infection and clinical presentation, and any genotypic variation. Of the 341 cases, 79% were aged 18-24. Vaccination status was available for 278 cases of whom 84% had received at least one dose of mumps containing vaccine and 62% had received two. The complication rate was 5·3% (mainly orchitis), and 1·2% were admitted to hospital. Genetic sequencing of mumps virus isolated from cases across Scotland classified 97% of the samples as genotype G. Two distinct clusters of genotype G were identified, one circulating before the outbreak and the other thereafter, suggesting the virus that caused this outbreak was genetically different from the previously circulating virus. Whilst the poor vaccine effectiveness we found may be due to waning immunity over time, a contributing factor may be that the current mumps vaccine is less effective against some genotypes. Although the general benefits of the measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine should continue to be promoted, there may be value in reassessing the UK vaccination schedule and the current mumps component of the MMR vaccine.