Ariel has been selected as ESA's M4 mission for launch in 2028 and is designed for the characterisation of a large and diverse population of exoplanetary atmospheres to provide insights into planetary formation and evolution within our Galaxy. Here we present a study of Ariel's capability to observe currently-known exoplanets and predicted TESS discoveries.We use the Ariel Radiometric model (ArielRad) to simulate the instrument performance and find that ∼2000 of these planets have atmospheric signals which could be characterised by Ariel. This list of potential planets contains a diverse range of planetary and stellar parameters. From these we select an example Mission Reference Sample (MRS), comprised of 1000 diverse planets to be completed within the primary mission life, which is consistent with previous studies.We also explore the mission capability to perform an in-depth survey into the atmospheres of smaller planets, which may be enriched or secondary. Earth-sized planets and Super-Earths with atmospheres heavier than H/He will be more challenging to observe spectroscopically. However, by studying the time required to observe ∼110 Earth-sized/Super-Earths, we find that Ariel could have substantial capability for providing in-depth observations of smaller planets.Trade-offs between the number and type of planets observed will form a key part of the selection process and this list of planets will continually evolve with new exoplanet discoveries replacing predicted detections. The Ariel target list will be constantly updated and the MRS re-selected to ensure maximum diversity in the population of planets studied during the primary mission life.
This paper presents the atmospheric characterization of three large, gaseous planets: WASP-127 b, WASP-79 b, and WASP-62 b. We analyzed spectroscopic data obtained with the G141 grism (1.088-1.68 μm) of the Wide Field Camera 3 on board the Hubble Space Telescope using the Iraclis pipeline and the TauREx3 retrieval code, both of which are publicly available. For WASP-127 b, which is the least dense planet discovered so far and is located in the shortperiod Neptune desert, our retrieval results found strong water absorption corresponding to an abundance of log(H 2 O)=−2.71-+ 1.05 0.78 and absorption compatible with an iron hydride abundance of log(FeH)=-+ 5.25 1.10 0.88 , with an extended cloudy atmosphere. We also detected water vapor in the atmospheres of WASP-79 b and WASP-62 b, with best-fit models indicating the presence of iron hydride, too. We used the Atmospheric Detectability Index as well as Bayesian log evidence to quantify the strength of the detection and compared our results to the hot Jupiter population study by Tsiaras et al. While all the planets studied here are suitable targets for characterization with upcoming facilities such as the James Webb Space Telescope and Ariel, WASP-127 b is of particular interest due to its low density, and a thorough atmospheric study would develop our understanding of planet formation and migration. Unified Astronomy Thesaurus concepts: Exoplanet astronomy (486); Exoplanet atmospheres (487); Astronomy data analysis (1858); Hubble Space Telescope (761)
We analyze the transmission and emission spectra of the ultra-hot Jupiter WASP-76 b, observed with the G141 grism of the Hubble Space Telescope's (HST) Wide Field Camera 3 (WFC3). We reduce and fit the raw data for each observation using the open-source software Iraclis before performing a fully Bayesian retrieval using the publicly available analysis suite TauREx 3. Previous studies of the WFC3 transmission spectra of WASP-76 b found hints of titanium oxide (TiO) and vanadium oxide (VO) or non-gray clouds. Accounting for a fainter stellar companion to WASP-76, we reanalyze this data and show that removing the effects of this background star changes the slope of the spectrum, resulting in these visible absorbers no longer being detected, eliminating the need for a non-gray cloud model to adequately fit the data but maintaining the strong water feature previously seen. However, our analysis of the emission spectrum suggests the presence of TiO and an atmospheric thermal inversion, along with a significant amount of water. Given the brightness of the host star and the size of the atmospheric features, WASP-76 b is an excellent target for further characterization with HST, or with future facilities, to better understand the nature of its atmosphere, to confirm the presence of TiO and to search for other optical absorbers.
ArielRad, the Ariel radiometric model, is a simulator developed to address the challenges in optimising the space mission science payload and to demonstrate its compliance with the performance requirements. Ariel, the Atmospheric Remote-Sensing Infrared Exoplanet Large-survey, has been selected by ESA as the M4 mission in the Cosmic Vision programme and, during its 4 years primary operation, will provide the first unbiased spectroscopic survey of a large and diverse sample of transiting exoplanet atmospheres. To allow for an accurate study of the mission, ArielRad uses a physically motivated noise model to estimate contributions arising from stationary processes, and includes margins for correlated and time-dependent noise sources. We show that the measurement uncertainties are dominated by the photon statistic, and that an observing programme with about 1000 exoplanetary targets can be completed during the primary mission lifetime.
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