Flow is one of the hydrological variables of greatest interest due to its connection with water availability and its multiple uses. However, in recent years this resource has been threatened by intense land use and climate change, affecting patterns previously considered to be stationary. The goal of this study was to evaluate trends in changes of patterns of flow, precipitation, and land use in a basin located in the Brazilian Cerrado. 33 years of rainfall, fluviometric, and land use data were used, covering the period of 1985 to 2018 on an annual scale. Mann-Kendall and Sen Slope’s nonparametric test was applied to evaluate the trends in temporal series, as well as the Spearman Rho and Pettit, which were used to analyze the correlations between variables and detect the point of change in the series, respectively. The results show statistically significant trends in flow reduction over time. At the same time, a considerable reduction in natural areas occurred, with an increase of +750% in agricultural areas. The results also show that although a tendency to reduce precipitation was detected, its magnitude was not significant, with land use changes being the main factor for the negative changes in the flow of the Rio Grande tributary.
Hydrological modeling presents itself as a fundamental tool for the management and management of water resources, since it helps to understand the flow of water, sediments and contaminants in a hydrographic basin. The Correntina River basin, located in the western region of Bahia, has been undergoing an intense process of alteration in its landscape motivated by the expansion of agricultural areas in the region, requiring the adoption of instruments for studies that assess the environmental impacts mainly on surface water resources. Thus, the present study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of the SWAT model for representing the hydrological behavior in the hydrographic basin of the Correntina River, using the SWAT-CUP for automatic calibration and validation. Statistical performance coefficients attested the model's capacity for hydrological simulations in this basin on a monthly time scale, with KGE, Pbias, NSE and R² showing values ​​of 0.69, 0.57, 0.5% and 0.74 in the calibration stage, and 0.73, -3.95 %, 0.64 and 0.76 in the validation step, respectively. In addition, the SWAT was also shown to be suitable for simulating the permanence curves, characterizing the model as a good tool to aid the management of water resources in the basin under study. Subsequent studies will make it possible to analyze the impacts of land use and climate change on the hydrological behavior of the basin under study.
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