The goal of this paper is to evaluate the economic performance of co-located corn grain ethanol (Gen 1) and cellulosic ethanol (Gen 2) facilities. We present six scenarios to evaluate the impact of stover-to-grain mass (SGM) ratios on overall minimum ethanol selling price (MESP). For the Gen 1 plant, MESP is $3.18/ gasoline gallon equivalent (GGE) while for the Gen 2 plant it is $5.64/GGE. Co-located Gen 1 and Gen 2 plants operating at the lowest SGM ratio of 0.4 generates the lowest overall MESP of $3.73/GGE as well as the highest MESP for cellulosic ethanol of $7.85/GGE. Co-located plants operating at the highest SGM ratio of 1.0 achieve the highest overall MESP of $3.94/GGE as well as the lowest MESP for cellulosic ethanol of $5.47/GGE. Sensitivity analysis shows that the prices of feedstocks have the greatest impact on the overall MESP.
AbstractThe goal of this paper is to evaluate the economic performance of co-located corn grain ethanol (Gen 1) and cellulosic ethanol (Gen 2) facilities. We present six scenarios to evaluate the impact of stover-to-grain mass (SGM) ratios on overall minimum ethanol selling price (MESP). For the Gen 1 plant, MESP is $3.18/ gasoline gallon equivalent (GGE) while for the Gen 2 plant it is $5.64/GGE. Co-located Gen 1 and Gen 2 plants operating at the lowest SGM ratio of 0.4generates the lowest overall MESP of $3.73/GGE as well as the highest MESP for cellulosic ethanol of $7.85/GGE. Co-located plants operating at the highest SGM ratio of 1.0 achieve the highest overall MESP of $3.94/GGE as well as the lowest MESP for cellulosic ethanol of $5.47/GGE. Sensitivity analysis shows that the prices of feedstocks have the greatest impact on the overall MESP.
This study evaluates the techno-economic uncertainty in cost estimates for two emerging technologies for biofuel production: in situ and ex situ catalytic pyrolysis. The probability distributions for the minimum fuel-selling price (MFSP) indicate that in situ catalytic pyrolysis has an expected MFSP of $1.11 per liter with a standard deviation of 0.29, while the ex situ catalytic pyrolysis has a similar MFSP with a smaller deviation ($1.13 per liter and 0.21 respectively). These results suggest that a biorefinery based on ex situ catalytic pyrolysis could have a lower techno-economic uncertainty than in situ pyrolysis compensating for a slightly higher MFSP cost estimate. Analysis of how each parameter affects the NPV indicates that internal rate of return, feedstock price, total project investment, electricity price, biochar yield and bio-oil yield are parameters which have substantial impact on the MFSP for both in situ and ex situ catalytic pyrolysis.
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