The Prairie Habitat Joint Venture (PHJV) delivers conservation programs for the Canadian portion of the Prairie Pothole Region under the North American Waterfowl Management Plan. The PHJV Assessment was designed to evaluate biological assumptions and effectiveness of PHJV conservation activities. Our objectives were to 1) test whether waterfowl reproductive success increased in response to the full suite of PHJV habitat treatments, and 2) quantify the relationships between mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) vital rates and landscape variables. We focused on examining the association of mallard vital rates with covariates measured at the study‐area scale. We collected information on vital rates from 3,214 radio‐marked female mallards at 27 study areas mainly throughout the Aspen Parkland ecoregion of Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and Alberta in 1993–2000. We used a modeling framework and information‐theoretic techniques to test hypotheses about putative effects of environmental covariates on adult female and duckling survival, nesting effort, and nest survival. Additionally, we constructed a stage‐based matrix projection model of mallard population growth (λ) to estimate the sensitivities of population growth rates to variation in vital rates. Nest survival was positively related to the amount of herbaceous vegetation on study areas and total precipitation for the 12 months prior to nesting. Nesting effort was positively related to wetland inundation in July. Duckling survival was positively related to the proportion of seasonal wetlands holding water in July and negatively related to the number of days in June and July when the minimum air temperature dropped below 10° C. Adult female survival rate was positively related to both the proportions of grassland and wetland habitats measured at the study‐area scale (65 km2), though these factors interacted such that the positive relationship with proportion of wetlands was strongest on study sites with high proportions of grassland. The stage‐based projection model constructed using mean vital rates indicated that populations were declining (mean λ = 0.95, median λ = 0.98, 5th percentile = 0.68, 95th percentile = 1.38). Variance‐stabilized sensitivities indicated that population growth was most responsive to variation in vital rates for after‐second‐year birds and that nest survival was the single vital rate to which populations were most sensitive. A prospective simulation revealed that, as expected, sensitivity to nest survival is likely to decrease at higher levels of nest survival. Despite evidence that nest survival was higher in PHJV habitat treatments than surrounding habitats, our a priori PHJV treatment index was unrelated to mallard vital rates estimated at the 65‐km2 scale. Although mallard populations were affected by several weather variables and land uses, efforts to increase populations should focus on improving nest survival rates, which currently are below approximately 30%. © 2014 The Wildlife Society.

Waterfowl nesting in annual croplands has remained a little‐known aspect of waterfowl nesting ecology because of the inability of many studies to systematically search this habitat through the nesting season. Where searches have been conducted, they are generally restricted to the period prior to seeding, and many nests found are destroyed by the seeding operation. Consequently, fall‐seeded crops have been promoted as an alternative cropping practice that could increase nest survival of waterfowl nesting in croplands. During 1996–1999, we conducted 3–4 complete nest searches on 4,274 ha of cropland, including spring‐seeded wheat and barley, winter wheat, and fall rye in southern Saskatchewan, Canada. Using suites of predictive models, we tested hypotheses regarding relative nest abundance and nest survival among crop types and tested the influence of several landscape‐scale covariates on these metrics. Apparent nest densities were higher in fall‐seeded crops (winter wheat: 0.39 nests/ha, fall rye: 0.25 nests/ha) than in spring‐seeded crops (0.03 nests/ha), and nest density in spring‐seeded croplands increased with percent cropland and percent wetland habitat in the surrounding landscape. Nest survival was higher in winter wheat (38%) than in either fall rye (18%) or spring‐seeded crops (12%), and nest survival in spring‐seeded crops increased with relative nest initiation date. Nest survival was unaffected by surrounding landscape characteristics but tended to be higher in years of average wetness. Based on our findings, winter wheat and fall rye have the potential to provide productive nesting habitat for ≥7 species of upland nesting ducks and fall‐seeded crops are a conservation tool well suited to highly cropped landscapes.

Dense nesting cover (DNC) has been a conspicuous component of habitat management for upland‐nesting ducks for >30 years, but its benefits for nesting ducks have been contentious. During 1994–1999 we monitored 3,058 dabbling duck (Anas spp.) nests in 84 DNC fields located throughout the Canadian Parklands to examine sources of among‐field variation in nest density and nesting success. Nest density averaged 1.51 (SE=0.15) nests/ha and overall nesting success was 20.4%, but there was pronounced annual variation in both estimates. Nesting success increased with increasing field size (range = 6–111 ha), but nest density remained constant. Nest density increased with percent wetland habitat within DNC fields and declined with percent perennial cover in the surrounding 2.4 × 2.4‐km landscape, but these variables were not important for predicting nesting success. Nest abundance and nesting success roughly doubled in fields seeded with alfalfa (Medicago sativa) or sweet clovers (Melilotus spp.), but there was no benefit from using native as opposed to tame grasses. We recommend that waterfowl managers in the Canadian Parklands establish DNC with alfalfa in large fields in landscapes with abundant wetlands but minimal competing cover.

Early hatched waterfowl are more likely to enter the breeding population. Managers' primary tool to increase nesting success in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North America is managing upland vegetation for duck nesting cover. To determine whether managed covertypes affect early‐season nesting success, we modeled seasonal variation in nesting success using >17,000 duck nests found in managed and unmanaged covertypes in prairie Canada from 1993 to 2000. Nesting success was higher in most managed covertypes than in unmanaged covertypes early in the nesting season. Planted cover appeared to be the best managed covertype for increasing early‐season nesting success as it had high early‐season nesting success, and was selected by nesting ducks in greater proportion than its availability; however, nesting success in planted cover declined later in the nesting season while nesting success in most unmanaged covertypes increased. Nevertheless, even with reduced nesting success late in the season, planted cover was more productive than surrounding unmanaged covertypes. Future waterfowl management efforts should focus on providing safe nesting cover early in the nesting season.

Mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) populations in the United States portion of the Great Lakes region increased through the 1990s but have since declined. To promote sustainable growth of this population, managers need to understand how perturbation of vital rates will affect annual population growth rate (Λ). We developed a stage‐based model representing the female mallard population in the Great Lakes using vital rates generated from a landscape‐level study documenting reproductive parameters from 2001 to 2003. We conducted perturbation analyses (i.e., sensitivity analyses) to identify vital rates that most influence Λ and variance decomposition analyses to determine the proportion of variation in Λ explained by variation in each vital rate. Perturbation analyses indicated that Λ was most sensitive to changes in nonbreeding survival, duckling survival, and nest success. Therefore, changes in these vital rates would be expected to result in the greatest ΔΛ. Process variation in breeding season parameters accounted for 63% of variation in Λ. Breeding season parameters explaining the most variation were duckling survival (32%) and nest success (16%). Survival of adult females outside the breeding season accounted for 36% of variation in Λ. Harvest derivation, high harvest, and high sensitivity of Λ to nonbreeding survival for Great Lakes female mallards suggests there is a strong potential for managing the Great Lakes mallard population via harvest management. Because Λ was highly sensitive to changes in duckling survival, we suggest programs that emphasize wetland protection, enhancement, and restoration as a management strategy to improve population growth for breeding mallards.