Together with seasonal effects inducing outdoor or indoor activities, the gradual easing of prophylaxis caused second and third waves of SARS-CoV-2 to emerge in various countries. Interestingly, data indicate that the proportion of infections belonging to the elderly is particularly small during periods of low prevalence and continuously increases as case numbers increase. This effect leads to additional stress on the health care system during periods of high prevalence. Furthermore, infections peak with a slight delay of about a week among the elderly compared to the younger age groups. Here, we provide a mechanistic explanation for this phenomenology attributable to a heterogeneous prophylaxis induced by the age-specific severity of the disease. We model the dynamical adoption of prophylaxis through a two-strategy game and couple it with an SIR spreading model. Our results also indicate that the mixing of contacts among the age groups strongly determines the delay between their peaks in prevalence and the temporal variation in the distribution of cases. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Data science approaches to infectious disease surveillance’.
We study the synchronized state in a population of network-coupled, heterogeneous oscillators. In particular, we show that the steady-state solution of the linearized dynamics may be written as a geometric series whose subsequent terms represent different spatial scales of the network. Specifically, each additional term incorporates contributions from wider network neighborhoods. We prove that this geometric expansion converges for arbitrary frequency distributions and for both undirected and directed networks provided that the adjacency matrix is primitive. We also show that the error in the truncated series grows geometrically with the second largest eigenvalue of the normalized adjacency matrix, analogously to the rate of convergence to the stationary distribution of a random walk. Last, we derive a local approximation for the synchronized state by truncating the spatial series, at the first neighborhood term, to illustrate the practical advantages of our approach.
Synchronization processes are ubiquitous despite the many connectivity patterns that complex systems can show. Usually, the emergence of synchrony is a macroscopic observable; however, the microscopic details of the system, as, e.g., the underlying network of interactions, is many times partially or totally unknown. We already know that different interaction structures can give rise to a common functionality, understood as a common macroscopic observable. Building upon this fact, here we propose network transformations that keep the collective behavior of a large system of Kuramoto oscillators invariant. We derive a method based on information theory principles, that allows us to adjust the weights of the structural interactions to map random homogeneous in-degree networks into random heterogeneous networks and vice versa, keeping synchronization values invariant. The results of the proposed transformations reveal an interesting principle; heterogeneous networks can be mapped to homogeneous ones with local information, but the reverse process needs to exploit higher-order information. The formalism provides analytical insight to tackle real complex scenarios when dealing with uncertainty in the measurements of the underlying connectivity structure.
Research on network percolation and synchronization has deepened our understanding of abrupt changes in the macroscopic properties of complex engineered and natural systems. While explosive percolation emerges from localized structural perturbations that delay the formation of a connected component, explosive synchronization is usually studied by fine-tuning of global parameters. Here, we introduce the concept of synchronization bombs as large networks of heterogeneous oscillators that abruptly transit from incoherence to phase-locking (or vice-versa) by adding (or removing) one or a few links. We build these bombs by optimizing global synchrony with decentralized information in a competitive percolation process driven by a local rule, and show their occurrence in systems of Kuramoto –periodic– and Rössler –chaotic– oscillators and in a model of cardiac pacemaker cells, providing an analytical characterization in the Kuramoto case. Our results propose a self-organized approach to design and control abrupt transitions in adaptive biological systems and electronic circuits, and place explosive synchronization and percolation under the same mechanistic framework.
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