Abstract:In this study, a two-stage inexact credibility-constrained programming (TICP) method is developed for identifying the efficiency of water trading under multiple uncertainties. TICP can tackle uncertainties expressed as probabilistic distributions, discrete intervals and fuzzy sets. It can also provide an effective linkage between the benefits to the system and the associated economic penalties attributed to the violation of the predefined policies for water resource allocation. The developed TICP method is applied to a real case of water resource allocation management and planning in the Kaidu-kongque River Basin, which is a typical arid region in Northwest China. Different water resource allocation policies based on changes to the water permit and trading ratio levels are examined. The results indicate that the efficiencies of water trading are sensitive to the degrees of satisfaction (i.e., interval credibility levels), which correspond to different water resource management policies. Furthermore, the comparison of benefits and shortages between trading and non-trading schemes implies that trading is more optimal and effective than non-trading. The results are helpful for making decisions about water allocation in an efficient way and for gaining insight into the tradeoffs between water trading and economic objectives.
Abstract:In this study, a mix inexact-quadratic fuzzy water resources management model of floodplain (IQT-WMMF) has developed, through incorporating techniques of credibility-constrained programming (CP), two-stage programming (TP), interval-parameter programming (IPP) and quadratic programming (QP) within a general framework for limited data availability. The IQT-WMMF can provide an effective linkage between system benefit and the associated economic penalty attributed to the violation of the pre-regulated water target under limited data availabilities expressed probabilistic distributions and interval values; meanwhile, imprecise and no-linear economic data would be resolved. The developed method is applied to a real case of planning water resources in the Dahuangbaowa floodplain, China, with the aim to develop a sustainable water resources management in the study region. A number of scenarios with wet land expansion strategies under various credibility levels are analyzed, implying that different policies can lead to varied water-allocation patterns, system benefits, and system-failure risks. The results discover that water deficits and flood damages have brought negative effects on economic development synchronously, which need to effective plans to reduce losses of shortages and floods for achieving higher system benefits. Tradeoffs between economic benefit and system-failure risk can support generating an increased robustness in risk control for water resources allocation under uncertainties, which is beneficial to adjust the current water-allocation sustainably.
OPEN ACCESSWater 2015, 7 2772
Abstract:In view of the characteristics of the randomness and uncertainty of basin initial water rights allocation scheme evaluation, this paper, integrating the Dempster-Shafer (D-S) evidence theory and the grey clustering evaluation method, researches on the evaluation method of allocation scheme. Taking advantages of D-S evidence theory and the compactcenter-point triangular whitenization weight function (CCTWF) in processing and integrating the uncomplete information, the grey clustering evaluation model based on D-S evidence theory is proposed. The integrated clustering coefficients matrix is obtained by using the grey clustering evaluation method based on CCTWF, and we look each clustering object as an evidence. Then, D-S evidence theory is used to obtain the belief function of every evidence with application of Dempster's combination rule, and the result of scheme evaluation in terms of the principle of selecting maximum value of belief functions. Finally, we take the evaluation of basin initial water rights allocation scheme of Dalinghe River in China for instance to demonstrate the practicability and effectiveness of this model.
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