Sediments from Lunkaransar dry lake in northwestern India reveal regional water table and lake level fluctuations over decades to centuries during the Holocene that are attributed to changes in the southwestern Indian monsoon rains. The lake levels were very shallow and fluctuated often in the early Holocene and then rose abruptly around 6300 carbon-14 years before the present (14C yr B.P.). The lake completely desiccated around 4800 (14)C yr B.P. The end of this 1500-year wet period coincided with a period of intense dune destabilization. The major Harrapan-Indus civilization began and flourished in this region 1000 years after desiccation of the lake during arid climate and was not synchronous with the lacustral phase.

A 5000-year regional paleoflood chronology, based on flood deposits from 19 rivers in Arizona and Utah, reveals that the largest floods in the region cluster into distinct time intervals that coincide with periods of cool, moist climate and frequent El Niño events. The floods were most numerous from 4800 to 3600 years before present (B.P.), around 1000 years B.P., and after 500 years B.P., but decreased markedly from 3600 to 2200 and 800 to 600 years B.P. Analogous modern floods are associated with a specific set of anomalous atmospheric circulation conditions that were probably more prevalent during past flood epochs.

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