Background Biomarkers for amyloid, tau, and neurodegeneration (ATN) have predictive value for clinical progression, but it is not clear how individuals move through these stages. We examined changes in ATN profiles over time, and investigated determinants of change in A status, in a sample of cognitively normal individuals presenting with subjective cognitive decline (SCD). Methods We included 92 individuals with SCD from the SCIENCe project with [18F]florbetapir PET (A) available at two time points (65 ± 8y, 42% female, MMSE 29 ± 1, follow-up 2.5 ± 0.7y). We additionally used [18F]flortaucipir PET for T and medial temporal atrophy score on MRI for N. Thirty-nine individuals had complete biomarker data at baseline and follow-up, enabling the construction of ATN profiles at two time points. All underwent extensive neuropsychological assessments (follow-up time 4.9 ± 2.8y, median number of visits n = 4). We investigated changes in biomarker status and ATN profiles over time. We assessed which factors predisposed for a change from A− to A+ using logistic regression. We additionally used linear mixed models to assess change from A− to A+, compared to the group that remained A− at follow-up, as predictor for cognitive decline. Results At baseline, 62% had normal AD biomarkers (A−T−N− n = 24), 5% had non-AD pathologic change (A−T−N+ n = 2,) and 33% fell within the Alzheimer’s continuum (A+T−N− n = 9, A+T+N− n = 3, A+T+N+ n = 1). Seventeen subjects (44%) changed to another ATN profile over time. Only 6/17 followed the Alzheimer’s disease sequence of A → T → N, while 11/17 followed a different order (e.g., reverted back to negative biomarker status). APOE ε4 carriership inferred an increased risk of changing from A− to A+ (OR 5.2 (95% CI 1.2–22.8)). Individuals who changed from A− to A+, showed subtly steeper decline on Stroop I (β − 0.03 (SE 0.01)) and Stroop III (− 0.03 (0.01)), compared to individuals who remained A−. Conclusion We observed considerable variability in the order of ATN biomarkers becoming abnormal. Individuals who became A+ at follow-up showed subtle decline on tests for attention and executive functioning, confirming clinical relevance of amyloid positivity.
BackgroundBlood‐based biomarkers can provide a non‐invasive and accessible way to identify neurodegenerative diseases before the clinical onset of dementia. Our study aimed to examine whether levels of phosphorylated‐tau‐181 (pTau181), amyloid beta1‐42/1‐40 (Aβ42/40), glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) and neurofilament light (NfL) are associated with risk of developing dementia in a memory clinic population of individuals with either subjective cognitive decline (SCD) or mild cognitive impairment (MCI).MethodFrom the Amsterdam Dementia Cohort we included 311 individuals with SCD (age 61±9 years, n=128 (41%) female, MMSE 29±1) and 252 with MCI (age 65±7 years, n=89 (35%) female, MMSE 27±2), who had annual follow‐up visits for re‐evaluation of diagnosis (average follow‐up duration: 2.7±1.7 years.) Baseline plasma biomarkers were measured using Simoa and the associations of the Z‐transformed biomarker concentrations with incident dementia were evaluated using Cox regression models adjusted for age, sex, baseline diagnosis and the interaction between baseline diagnosis (SCD/MCI) and the biomarker concentration. The markers were first evaluated individually and then simultaneously in a combined model. We stratified results for baseline diagnosis when the biomarker*diagnosis interaction was significant.ResultDuring follow‐up, 94 individuals developed dementia (14 with SCD, 80 with MCI at baseline, 86 Alzheimer’s Disease, 8 other forms of dementia; average time to progression: 2.8±1.8 years). We found an interaction between baseline diagnosis and NfL for incident dementia (p=0.03). No other interactions were found. In the total set, both high baseline pTau181 (hazard ratio (HR)=3.4 (95%CI: 1.3–9.0); figure 1A), and high baseline GFAP (HR=5.5 (95%CI: 1.6–18.6); figure 1B) were associated with increased risk of dementia, but the association with Aβ42/40 was not significant (HR=0.4 (95%CI: 0.2–1.1)). NfL had no significant association with increased dementia incident risk in both SCD subset (HR=1.8, (95%CI: 0.9‐3.6)) and the MCI subset (HR= 1.3, (95%CI: 1.0–1.6)). When we simultaneously entered all biomarkers, pTau181 and GFAP remained significantly associated with incident dementia (table 1.)ConclusionOur results suggest that plasma GFAP and pTau181 have prognostic value to predict dementia in individuals presenting at a memory clinic.
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