Motivated by research in psychology and experimental economics, we assume that investors update their beliefs about an asset's value upon observing the price, but only when the price clearly reveals that others obtained private information that differs from their own private information. Specifically, we assume that investors learn from the price of an asset in an asymmetric manner—they learn from the price if they observe good (bad) private information and the price is worse (better) than what is justified based on public information alone. We show that asymmetric learning from an asset's price leads to post‐earnings‐announcement drift (PEAD), and that it generates arbitrage opportunities that are less attractive than alternative explanations of PEAD. In addition, our model predicts that PEAD will be concentrated in earnings surprises that are not dominated by accruals, and it also predicts that earnings response coefficients will decline in the magnitude of the earnings surprises.
Baseball cards exhibit anomalies that are analogous to those that are documented in financial markets, namely, momentum, price drift in the direction of past fundamental performance, and initial public offering (IPO) underperformance. Momentum is higher among active players than retired players, and among newer sets than older sets. Regarding IPO underperformance, we find that newly issued rookie cards underperform newly issued cards of veteran players, and that newly issued sets underperform older sets. The results are broadly consistent with models of slow information diffusion and short‐selling constraints.
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