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In this prospective cohort study we aimed to describe the natural course of acute neck and low back pain in a general population of Norway. We screened 9056 subjects aged 20-67 years who participated in a general health survey for a new episode of neck or low back pain the previous month. The screening identified 219 subjects who formed the cohort for this study. Pain intensity was reported on a numeric rating scale (0-10) at 1, 2, 3, 6, and 12 months after start of the new pain episode. The course of pain was described for neck and low back pain, different baseline pain levels, age groups, and number of pain sites at baseline. Use of medication and health care was described and associations between pain intensity and seeking health care were estimated. Pain declined rapidly within 1 month after a new pain episode, with a reduction of 0.91 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.50-1.32) for neck pain and 1.40 (95% CI 0.82-1.99) for low back pain with little change thereafter. However, pain remained unchanged over the follow-up year for those with equal pain in the neck and low back areas at baseline and for those reporting 4 or more pain sites at baseline. Only 1 in 5 sought health care for their complaints. Still, the course of pain was comparable to effect sizes reported in interventional studies. This study thus contributes natural course reference data for comparisons of pain outcome in clinical trials and practice.

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This study aimed to identify simple rules for allocating chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients to clinical phenotypes identified by cluster analyses.Data from 2409 COPD patients of French/Belgian COPD cohorts were analysed using cluster analysis resulting in the identification of subgroups, for which clinical relevance was determined by comparing 3-year all-cause mortality. Classification and regression trees (CARTs) were used to develop an algorithm for allocating patients to these subgroups. This algorithm was tested in 3651 patients from the COPD Cohorts Collaborative International Assessment (3CIA) initiative.Cluster analysis identified five subgroups of COPD patients with different clinical characteristics (especially regarding severity of respiratory disease and the presence of cardiovascular comorbidities and diabetes). The CART-based algorithm indicated that the variables relevant for patient grouping differed markedly between patients with isolated respiratory disease (FEV, dyspnoea grade) and those with multi-morbidity (dyspnoea grade, age, FEV and body mass index). Application of this algorithm to the 3CIA cohorts confirmed that it identified subgroups of patients with different clinical characteristics, mortality rates (median, from 4% to 27%) and age at death (median, from 68 to 76 years).A simple algorithm, integrating respiratory characteristics and comorbidities, allowed the identification of clinically relevant COPD phenotypes.

This study suggests that having anxiety or depression symptoms contributes to the development of asthma in adults. The risk of asthma may be further increased by the interaction between anxiety or depression symptoms and obesity.

BackgroundExternal validations and comparisons of prognostic models or scores are a prerequisite for their use in routine clinical care but are lacking in most medical fields including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Our aim was to externally validate and concurrently compare prognostic scores for 3-year all-cause mortality in mostly multimorbid patients with COPD.MethodsWe relied on 24 cohort studies of the COPD Cohorts Collaborative International Assessment consortium, corresponding to primary, secondary, and tertiary care in Europe, the Americas, and Japan. These studies include globally 15,762 patients with COPD (1871 deaths and 42,203 person years of follow-up). We used network meta-analysis adapted to multiple score comparison (MSC), following a frequentist two-stage approach; thus, we were able to compare all scores in a single analytical framework accounting for correlations among scores within cohorts. We assessed transitivity, heterogeneity, and inconsistency and provided a performance ranking of the prognostic scores.ResultsDepending on data availability, between two and nine prognostic scores could be calculated for each cohort. The BODE score (body mass index, airflow obstruction, dyspnea, and exercise capacity) had a median area under the curve (AUC) of 0.679 [1st quartile–3rd quartile = 0.655–0.733] across cohorts. The ADO score (age, dyspnea, and airflow obstruction) showed the best performance for predicting mortality (difference AUCADO – AUCBODE = 0.015 [95% confidence interval (CI) = −0.002 to 0.032]; p = 0.08) followed by the updated BODE (AUCBODE updated – AUCBODE = 0.008 [95% CI = −0.005 to +0.022]; p = 0.23). The assumption of transitivity was not violated. Heterogeneity across direct comparisons was small, and we did not identify any local or global inconsistency.ConclusionsOur analyses showed best discriminatory performance for the ADO and updated BODE scores in patients with COPD. A limitation to be addressed in future studies is the extension of MSC network meta-analysis to measures of calibration. MSC network meta-analysis can be applied to prognostic scores in any medical field to identify the best scores, possibly paving the way for stratified medicine, public health, and research.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1186/s12916-018-1013-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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Whether respiratory symptoms are associated with mortality independent of lung function is unclear. The authors explored the association of the exposures i) lung function, ii) respiratory symptoms, and iii) lung function and respiratory symptoms combined, with the outcomes all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. The study included 10,491 adults who participated in the Nord-Trøndelag Health Study (HUNT) Lung Study in 1995-1997 and were followed through 2009. Cox regression was used to calculate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality associated with pre-bronchodilator% predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 second (ppFEV1), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) grades, and respiratory symptoms (chronic bronchitis, wheeze, and levels of dyspnoea). Lung function was inversely associated with all-cause mortality. Compared to ppFEV1 ≥100, ppFEV1 <50 increased the HR to 6.85 (4.46-10.52) in women and 3.88 (2.60-5.79) in men. Correspondingly, compared to normal airflow, COPD grade 3 or 4 increased the HR to 6.50 (4.33-9.75) in women and 3.57 (2.60-4.91) in men. Of the respiratory symptoms, only dyspnoea when walking remained associated with all-cause mortality after controlling for lung function (HR 1.73 [1.04-2.89] in women and 1.57 [1.04-2.36] in men). Analyses of lung function and dyspnoea when walking as a combined exposure further supported this finding. Overall, associations between lung function and cardiovascular mortality were weaker, and respiratory symptoms were not associated with cardiovascular mortality. In conclusion, lung function was inversely associated with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, and dyspnoea when walking was associated with all-cause mortality independent of lung function.