The aim of this prospective cohort study was to identify which blood pressure measurement during exercise is the best predictor of future hypertension. Further we aimed to create a risk chart to facilitate the evaluation of blood pressure reaction during exercise testing. A number (n ¼ 1047) of exercise tests by bicycle ergometry, performed in 1996 and 1997 were analysed. In 2007 --2008, 606 patients without hypertension at the time of the exercise test were sent a questionnaire aimed to identify current hypertension. The response rate was 58% (n ¼ 352). During the 10 --12 years between exercise test and questionnaire, 23% developed hypertension. The strongest predictors of future hypertension were systolic blood pressure (SBP) before exercise (odds ratios (OR) 1.63 (1.31 --2.01) for 10 mm Hg difference) in combination with the increase of SBP over time during exercise testing (OR 1.12 (1.01 --1.24) steeper increase for every 1 mm Hg min À1 ). A high SBP before exercise and a steep rise in SBP over time represented a higher risk of developing hypertension. A risk chart based on SBP before exercise, increase of SBP over time and body mass index was created. SBP before exercise, maximal SBP during exercise and SBP at 100 W were significant single predictors of future hypertension and the prediction by maximal SBP was improved by adjusting for time/ power at which SBP max was reached during exercise testing. Recovery ratio (maximal SBP/SBP 4 min after exercise) was not predictive of future hypertension.
Flexible surge capacity aims to activate and utilize other resources than normally are surged in a community during the primary and secondary surge capacity. The presence of alternative leadership, skilled and knowledgeable in hospital and prehospital emergency management, is invaluable. Thai emergency physicians work at both levels, emphasizing their important role in emergency management of any source in a disaster-prone country. We aimed to investigate Thai emergency physicians’ ability in terms of knowledge and preparedness to manage potential emergencies using tabletop simulation exercises. Using an established method for training collaboration, two training courses were arranged for over 50 Thai emergency physicians, who were divided into three teams of prehospital, hospital, and incident command groups. Three scenarios of a terror attack along with a bomb explosion, riot, and shooting, and high building fire were presented, and the participants’ performance was evaluated regarding their preparedness, response and gained knowledge. Two senior observers followed the leadership characteristic in particular. Thai physicians’ perceived ability in command and control, communication, collaboration, coordination, and situation assessment improved in all groups systematically. New perspectives and innovative measures were presented by participants, which improved the overall management on the final day. Tabletop simulation exercise increased the perceived ability, knowledge, and attitude of Thai emergency physicians in managing major incidents and disasters. It also enabled them to lead emergency management in a situation when alternative leadership is a necessity as part of the concept of a flexible surge capacity response system.
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