The estimation of accuracy and applicability of QSAR and QSPR models for biological and physicochemical properties represents a critical problem. The developed parameter of "distance to model" (DM) is defined as a metric of similarity between the training and test set compounds that have been subjected to QSAR/QSPR modeling. In our previous work, we demonstrated the utility and optimal performance of DM metrics that have been based on the standard deviation within an ensemble of QSAR models. The current study applies such analysis to 30 QSAR models for the Ames mutagenicity data set that were previously reported within the 2009 QSAR challenge. We demonstrate that the DMs based on an ensemble (consensus) model provide systematically better performance than other DMs. The presented approach identifies 30-60% of compounds having an accuracy of prediction similar to the interlaboratory accuracy of the Ames test, which is estimated to be 90%. Thus, the in silico predictions can be used to halve the cost of experimental measurements by providing a similar prediction accuracy. The developed model has been made publicly available at http://ochem.eu/models/1 .

Developing chemicals that inhibit checkpoint kinase 1 (Chk1) is a promising adjuvant therapeutic to improve the efficacy and selectivity of DNA-targeting agents. Reliable prediction of binding-free energy and binding affinity of Chk1 inhibitors can provide a guide for rational drug design. In this study, multiple docking strategies and Prime/Molecular Mechanics Generalized Born Surface Area (Prime/MM-GBSA) calculation were applied to predict the binding mode and free energy for a series of benzoisoquinolinones as Chk1 inhibitors. Reliable docking results were obtained using induced-fit docking and quantum mechanics/molecular mechanics (QM/MM) docking, which showed superior performance on both ligand binding pose and docking score accuracy to the rigid-receptor docking. Then, the Prime/MM-GBSA method based on the docking complex was used to predict the binding-free energy. The combined use of QM/MM docking and Prime/MM-GBSA method could give a high correlation between the predicted binding-free energy and experimentally determined pIC(50) . The molecular docking combined with Prime/MM-GBSA simulation can not only be used to rapidly and accurately predict the binding-free energy of novel Chk1 inhibitors but also provide a novel strategy for lead discovery and optimization targeting Chk1.