Therefore, it is valuable to predict ENSO early and accurately to minimize these effects. However, predicting the strength of ENSO remains a challenge due to its complexity (Sun et al., 2016;Timmermann et al., 2018). Also, the increasing diversity of ENSO behavior since 2000 has led to a growing interest in the type of ENSO events (Geng et al., 2020). ENSO can be mainly divided into Eastern Pacific (EP) and Central Pacific (CP) types (Yeh et al., 2009), based on the distribution of the Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly (SSTA) during its maturation phase. However, some events that the SSTA is relatively high over the central and eastern Pacific Ocean cannot be classified as CP or EP types. Zhang et al. ( 2019) classified ENSO into EP, CP, and a mixture of the two (MIX) types of EI Niño (La Niña). To the best of our knowledge, the definition of ENSO type has not come to an agreement. Because the effects of different ENSO types vary greatly, for example, different EI Niño events have a different impact on US winter temperatures (Yu et al., 2012) and the East Asian climate (Yuan & Yang, 2012). Hence, the prediction of ENSO type is important for improving the quality of climate forecasts.
Guangxi and Fujian provinces, has the most abundant rainfall in China (Lu 1990). The rainy season in this area is usually divided into the early-flood season (April-June) and the late-flood season (July-September). During the early-flood season, heavy rainfall events and the associated floods frequently cause severe property damages in South China. The late-flood season rainfall is mainly caused by tropical systems moving into South China, whereas the rainfall during the early-flood season is largely associated with the quasistationary subtropical front, called the Mei-Yu front (Chen et al. 2006). The early-flood season persistent heavy rainfall events (PHR events hereafter) are responsible for most severe flood disasters associated with significant economic losses in South China. Thus, they have received much attention (Tao and Chen 1987;Lau et al. 1988;Tang et al. 2006;Bao 2007Bao , 2008.The intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) has been found responsible for most rainfall variations in the Asian summer monsoon region (Yang 1992; Mao and Chan 2005; Li and Wang 2005; Zhou and Chan 2005; Miura et al. 2007; Lin et al. 2008; Mao et al. 2010; Yang et al. 2010; Ren et al. 2013, 2015; Pan et al. 2013; Chen and Zhai 2014). Two different periodicities of the boreal summer ISO (BSISO) have been identified (Li and Wang 2005): 30-60 days (e.g., Wang et al. 2005) and 10-20 days (e.g., Kikuchi and Wang 2010). The wet and dry spells of the BSISO strongly influence extreme hydro-meteorological events, major driving forces of natural disasters, and thus the socio-economic activities in South Asia (Lau and Waliser 2005). Huang et al. (2008) investigated the climatological characteristics of the ISO related precipitation variability in China and found that the ISO begins to amplify in April and weakens in November. Ju and Zhao (2005) showed that the 30-60 days ISO is the most remarkable in strong summer Abstract Rainfall variability during the early-flood season (April-June) in South China is largely controlled by both the 10-20 and 20-70-day intraseasonal oscillations (ISO). In this study, a method is described to monitor the ISO and persistent heavy rainfall in South China. Three existing daily real-time 20-70-day ISO indices are compared. It is found that the regional East Asia-western North Pacific (EAWNP) ISO index best represents the earlyflood season 20-70-day ISO in South China. A new bivariate boreal summer ISO index is designed to describe the 10-20-day ISO in the EAWNP region. Composite analysis shows that the rainfall anomaly in South China is well captured by the northward propagation of both the 10-20 and 20-70-day ISO. With different phase combinations of the 10-20 and 20-70-day EAWNP ISO, nine conditions are defined ranging from those favorable to those unfavorable to heavy rainfall in South China that can be used to effectively monitor the early-flood season ISO and persistent heavy rainfall in South China.
Zhang et al., 2017) timescale variabilities. As we know now, the large-scale circulations, such as the low-level confluence, the monsoon trough, the monsoon gyre, and the tropical depression-type disturbance, can all influence TC genesis.In recent years, the intra-seasonal oscillation (ISO), with its scale between 10 and 90 days, has attracted an increasing
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