The century-old use of genetic markers to determine population relationships has morphed in modern forensics into use of markers to determine the ancestry of an individual from a DNA sample. Researchers have identified sets of SNPs that have frequency differences among populations and many sets of SNPs have been published for the purpose of inferring ancestry. Such inference also requires reference datasets for the particular set of SNPs selected. We have identified 21 largely independent published panels of ancestry informative SNPs (AISNPs) and examined their union of 1397 SNPs. No SNP occurs in more than 6 panels. The 1397 SNPs in 21 panels yield a largely empty matrix that is inhibiting progress on more refined ability to infer ancestry for a forensic sample. The most common set of reference populations is the HGDP set of 52 small population samples totaling a thousand individuals. Only 46 (3%) of the 1397 SNPs occur in three or more panels. We assembled a new dataset for 44 of those SNPs involving 4,559 individuals from 73 populations. Analyses of this dataset provided clear differentiation of only five biogeographic regions: sub-Saharan Africa, Europe and SW Asia, South Asia, East Asia, and the Americas. This is an inadequate level of biogeographic resolution already exceeded by other panels. We conclude that more such AISNP panels are not needed and that the forensic community must collaborate to develop a common set of highly differentiating AISNPs typed on a very large number of population samples. How that can be accomplished will be the subject of future discussion.
China has repeatedly been the subject of genetic studies to elucidate its prehistoric and historic demography. While some studies reported a genetic distinction between Northern and Southern Han Chinese, others showed a more clinal picture of small differences within China. Here, we investigated the distribution of Y chromosome variation along administrative as well as ethnic divisions in the mainland territory of the People's Republic of China, including 28 administrative regions and 19 recognized Chinese nationalities, to assess the impact of recent demographic processes. To this end, we analyzed 37,994 Y chromosomal 17-marker haplotype profiles from the YHRD database with respect to forensic diversity measures and genetic distance between groups defined by administrative boundaries and ethnic origin. We observed high diversity throughout all Chinese provinces and ethnicities. Some ethnicities, including most prominently Kazakhs and Tibetans, showed significant genetic differentiation from the Han and other groups. However, differences between provinces were, except for those located on the Tibetan plateau, less pronounced. This discrepancy is explicable by the sizeable presence of Han speakers, who showed high genetic homogeneity all across China, in nearly all studied provinces. Furthermore, we observed a continuous genetic North-South gradient in the Han, confirming previous reports of a clinal distribution of Y chromosome variation and being in notable concordance with the previously observed spatial distribution of autosomal variation. Our findings shed light on the demographic changes in China accrued by a fast-growing and increasingly mobile population.
DNA-based prediction for externally visible characteristics such as eye color is already a useful tool in forensic criminal investigations. The IrisPlex system, consisting of six single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and a prediction model, was developed based on individuals from several European populations. Other recent studies have developed a different prediction model, also based on European populations. In this study, we compared two prediction models using the data for the six IrisPlex SNPs genotyped on 905 individuals from 12 different Eurasian populations. All SNPs showed significant differences in allele frequencies among three groups of populations: European, genetically intermediate (Khanty, Uygur, and Yakut), and East Asian. The two prediction models, the FROG-kb calculation based on the formula of Walsh et al. (2011) and the Snipper calculation from Ruiz et al. (2013), gave identical predictions of brown eye color for the four East Asian populations with complete data but did not give concordant predictions for many individuals in the seven intermediate and European populations. Inconsistencies were mainly conclusive prediction by one model but not the other. Of the 714 individuals with complete 6-locus genotypes, the two models gave 22 % inconsistent predictions. Eliminating the 306 individuals in the Korean and three Chinese populations, in which the predictions were always consistent for brown eye color, the inconsistencies (among the remaining 408 individuals) were 38.7 %. We conclude that more attention should be paid to predictive uncertainty/error. Implementation of both prediction models in future forensic casework is one immediate way to highlight uncertainty.
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