A fourth production region for the globally important Antarctic bottom water has been attributed to dense shelf water formation in the Cape Darnley Polynya, adjoining Prydz Bay in East Antarctica. Here we show new observations from CTD-instrumented elephant seals in 2011–2013 that provide the first complete assessment of dense shelf water formation in Prydz Bay. After a complex evolution involving opposing contributions from three polynyas (positive) and two ice shelves (negative), dense shelf water (salinity 34.65–34.7) is exported through Prydz Channel. This provides a distinct, relatively fresh contribution to Cape Darnley bottom water. Elsewhere, dense water formation is hindered by the freshwater input from the Amery and West Ice Shelves into the Prydz Bay Gyre. This study highlights the susceptibility of Antarctic bottom water to increased freshwater input from the enhanced melting of ice shelves, and ultimately the potential collapse of Antarctic bottom water formation in a warming climate.

No abstract

The coastal shelf region of East Antarctica is hypothesized to be shielded from the offshore heat of Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) due to the dynamic barrier of the Antarctic Slope Front. Yet modified CDW (mCDW) intrudes into the coastal environment in key locations, with impacts on dense shelf water formation and ocean/ice shelf interaction that remain largely unquantified. Using moored measurements and conductivity‐temperature‐depth‐instrumented seal hydrographic data collected in Prydz Bay, East Antarctica, we find buoyancy‐driven upwelling of mCDW into the subsurface (~50 m) layer of the southeastern embayment. Wintertime convection extends as deep as 300 m, entraining heat of the upwelled mCDW to the surface. Accumulated sensible heat supply to the surface through deep convection during June–July reduces the potential sea ice production by 45% in the Davis Polynya, demonstrating that stronger/warmer mCDW intrusions onto the shelf will likely reduce the shelf water density and threaten Antarctic Bottom Water formation.

Using observational data collected south of Tasmania during 14 austral summer cruises during 1993–2011, we examined the response of sea surface fugacity of carbon dioxide (fCO2) to the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) shift, which occurred around 2000. In the southern part of the Southern Ocean (SO) or the Polar Zone (PZ) and the Polar Frontal Zone (PFZ), fCO2 increased faster at the sea surface than in the atmosphere before the SAM shift, but not after the shift. In the northern part of the SO or the Subantarctic Zone (SAZ), however, surface fCO2 increased faster than atmospheric fCO2 both before and after the shift. The SAM shift had an important influence on the surface fCO2 trend in the PZ and PFZ but not in the SAZ, which we attribute to differences in regional oceanographic processes (upwelling versus nonupwelling). The SAM shift may have reversed the negative trend of SO CO2 uptake.