Highest drought sensitivity and lowest resistance to growth suppression are found in the range core of the tree Fagus sylvatica L. not the equatorial range edge AbstractBiogeographical and ecological theory suggests that species distributions should be driven to higher altitudes and latitudes as global temperatures rise. Such changes occur as growth improves at the poleward edge of a species distribution and declines at the range edge in the opposite or equatorial direction, mirrored by changes in the establishment of new individuals. A substantial body of evidence demonstrates that such processes are underway for a wide variety of species. Case studies from populations at the equatorial range edge of a variety of woody species have led us to understand that widespread growth decline and distributional shifts are underway. However, in apparent contrast, other studies report high productivity and reproduction in some range edge populations. We sought to assess temporal trends in the growth of the widespread European beech tree (Fagus sylvatica) across its latitudinal range. We explored the stability of populations to major drought events and the implications for predicted widespread growth decline at its equatorial range edge. In contrast to expectations, we found greatest sensitivity and low resistance to drought in the core of the species range, whilst dry range edge populations showed particularly high resistance to drought and little evidence of drought-linked growth decline. We hypothesize that this high range edge resistance to drought is driven primarily by local environmental factors that allow relict populations to persist despite regionally unfavourable climate. The persistence of such populations demonstrates that range-edge decline is not ubiquitous and is likely to be driven by declining population density at the landscape scale rather than sudden and widespread range retraction.

Summary1. The effect of extreme climate events on ecosystems is an important driver of biotic responses to climate change. For forests, extreme drought has been linked to negative effects such as large-scale mortality and reduced primary production. However, the response of plant communities to extreme drought events remains poorly understood. 2. We used mortality data from a long-term monitoring programme in the core of the focal species' ranges, in combination with annual growth data from tree-rings, to study the effect of, and recovery from, an extreme drought event. We examined both the intraspecific and interspecific drought response and explored how differential responses affect competitive dominance between the dominant species Fagus sylvatica and Quercus petraea. 3. Mortality for the most drought-susceptible species, F. sylvatica, occurred alongside a temporary reduction in competition-induced mortality of Q. petraea, resulting in the long-term alteration of the relative abundance of the two species. 4. Significant intraspecific variation occurred in post-drought recovery in surviving F. sylvatica, with two distinct cohorts identified. A prolonged recovery period was coupled with the failure to regain pre-drought growth levels in this species, whereas for Q. petraea, no severe drought impacts were observed. This species instead experienced competitive release of growth. 5. Our results demonstrate that ecosystem responses to extreme drought can involve rapid, nonlinear threshold processes during the recovery phase as well as the initial drought impact. These sudden changes can lead to the reordering of dominance between species within communities, which may persist if extreme events become more frequent.

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The growth of past, present, and future forests was, is and will be affected by climate variability. This multifaceted relationship has been assessed in several regional studies, but spatially resolved, large-scale analyses are largely missing so far. Here we estimate recent changes in growth of 5800 beech trees (Fagus sylvatica L.) from 324 sites, representing the full geographic and climatic range of species. Future growth trends were predicted considering state-of-the-art climate scenarios. The validated models indicate growth declines across large region of the distribution in recent decades, and project severe future growth declines ranging from −20% to more than −50% by 2090, depending on the region and climate change scenario (i.e. CMIP6 SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5). Forecasted forest productivity losses are most striking towards the southern distribution limit of Fagus sylvatica, in regions where persisting atmospheric high-pressure systems are expected to increase drought severity. The projected 21st century growth changes across Europe indicate serious ecological and economic consequences that require immediate forest adaptation.

The aim of our study was to determine variation in the response of radial growth in Fagus sylvatica L (European Beech) to climate across the species full geographical distribution and climatic tolerance. We combined new and existing data to build a database of 140 tree-ring chronologies to investigate patterns in growth-climate relationships. Our novel meta-analysis approach has allowed the first investigation of the effect of climate on tree growth across the entire geographical distribution of the species. We identified key climate signals in tree-ring chronologies and then investigated how these varied geographically and according to mean local climate, and by tree age and size. We found that the most important climate variables significantly correlated with growth did not show strong geographical patterns. Growth of trees in the core and at the southern edge of the distribution was reduced by high temperature and low precipitation during the growing season, and by high temperatures in the previous summer. However, growth of trees growing in warmer and drier locations was more frequently significantly correlated with summer precipitation than other populations. Additionally, the growth of older and larger trees was more frequently significantly correlated with previous summer temperature than younger and smaller trees. Trees growing at the south of the species geographical distributions are often considered most at risk from climate change, but our results indicate that radial growth of populations in other areas of the distribution is equally likely to be significantly correlated with summer climate and may also be vulnerable. Additionally, tree-rings from older trees contain particular growth-climate relationships that are rarely found in younger trees. These results have important implications for predicting forest carbon balance, resource use and likely future changes to forest composition across the continent.