In the last several decades, habitat loss, overexploitation, invasive organisms, disease, pollution and, more recently, climate change have led to catastrophic declines in amphibian biodiversity. Montane amphibian species, particularly those with narrow distributions and specific habitat requirements are likely to be at particular risk under future climate change scenarios. Despite this, fundamental ecological data are lacking for most of these species. Philoria kundagungan is a poorly known representative of a range-restricted genus of montane amphibians from eastern Australia. Using an occupancy framework, we conducted repeated call playback surveys at 32 sites across the mountainous regions of south-east Queensland and north-eastern New South Wales, Australia, to investigate: (1) the current extent of this species’ geographic range, and (2) environmental predictors of this species’ presence. We found that P. kundagungan has a highly restricted and fragmented distribution, being limited to ~11 km2 of potentially suitable habitat, and that its presence is strongly associated with high elevation (>800 m). Our survey protocol resulted in a high probability of detection (>70%) at occupied sites from relatively few visits. From these baseline data, future studies will have the ability to determine changes in this species’ geographic range and occupancy rate in response to the ever-increasing threats faced by P. kundagungan, thereby supporting more effective conservation strategies and policy decisions.
Deepening droughts and unprecedented wildfires are at the leading edge of climate change. Such events pose an emerging threat to species maladapted to these perturbations, with the potential for steeper declines than may be inferred from the gradual erosion of their climatic niche. This study focused on two species of amphibians—Philoria kundagungan and Philoria richmondensis (Limnodynastidae)—from the Gondwanan rainforests of eastern Australia that were extensively affected by the “Black Summer” megafires of 2019/2020 and the severe drought associated with them. We sought to assess the impact of these perturbations by quantifying the extent of habitat affected by fire, assessing patterns of occurrence and abundance of calling males post‐fire, and comparing post‐fire occurrence and abundance with that observed pre‐fire. Some 30% of potentially suitable habitat for P. kundagungan was fire affected, and 12% for P. richmondensis. Field surveys revealed persistence in some burnt rainforest; however, both species were detected at a higher proportion of unburnt sites. There was a clear negative effect of fire on the probability of site occupancy, abundance and the probability of persistence for P. kundagungan. For P. richmondensis, effects of fire were less evident due to the limited penetration of fire into core habitat; however, occupancy rates and abundance of calling males were depressed during the severe drought that prevailed just prior to the fires, with the reappearance of calling males linked to the degree of rehydration of breeding habitat post‐fire. Our results highlight the possibility that severe negative impacts of climate change for montane rainforest endemics may be felt much sooner than commonly anticipated under a scenario of gradual (decadal‐scale) changes in mean climatic conditions. Instead, the increased rate of severe stochastic events places these narrow range species at a heightened risk of extinction in the near‐term.
Montane ecosystems cover approximately 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface and are centres of endemism. Globally, anthropogenic climate change is driving population declines and local extinctions across multiple montane taxa, including amphibians. We applied the maximum entropy approach to predict the impacts of climate change on the distribution of two poorly known amphibian species (Philoria kundagungan and Philoria richmondensis) endemic to the subtropical uplands of the Gondwana Rainforests of Australia, World Heritage Area (GRAWHA). Firstly, under current climate conditions and also future (2055) low and high warming scenarios. We validated current distribution models against models developed using presence-absence field data. Our models were highly concordant with known distributions and predicted the current distribution of P. kundagungan to contract by 64% under the low warming scenario and by 91% under the high warming scenario and that P. richmondensis would contract by 50% and 85%, respectively. With large areas of habitat already impacted by wildfires, conservation efforts for both these species need to be initiated urgently. We propose several options, including establishing ex-situ insurance populations increasing the long-term viability of both species in the wild through conservation translocations.
Population monitoring is required to guide conservation programs. We conducted a capture–mark–recapture study of a population of the vulnerable green and golden bell frog (Litoria aurea) at the northern end of its range. Frogs were captured and marked over three breeding seasons (2015/16, 2016/17, 2017/18) in a large coastal lagoon. We aimed to: (1) produce annual estimates of population size to describe population trajectory, and (2) investigate monthly variation in abundance, capture probability, and temporary emigration to understand how these factors change at a finer temporal scale. Frog abundance varied across the three annual breeding seasons: 60–280 adult males, 120–190 adult females, and 90–420 subadults. We infer that the population is stable because adult abundance estimates were higher after 2015/16. Because our study sampled only half the available breeding habitat, the overall population may number 350–850 adults. Our modelling revealed >40 males but <20 females were detected in the sample area in our monthly samples. Estimates of temporary emigration were high (males: 0.54; females: 0.79), suggesting behaviour that made frogs unavailable for capture between months. Our results suggest that monitoring at greater than annual intervals should be adequate to monitor the future trend of this population.
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