[1] The observed trends in extreme precipitation events, and those in annual and seasonal mean precipitation in China during 1961 -2001 are analyzed. The results show that the annual mean precipitation increases significantly in southwest, northwest, and east China, and decreases significantly in central, north and northeast China. The increasing trends in east China occurred mainly in summer, while the decreasing trends in central, north, and northeast China occurred in both spring and autumn. The increasing trends in most of northwest China occurred in all seasons. Patterns of the trends in extreme daily precipitation events are similar to those in the annual and seasonal mean precipitation except in the northwest China where most areas show increasing trends in extreme events only in summer. The extreme precipitation events in the Yangtze River basin increased dramatically by 10%-20% every 10 years in summer, consistent with the increasing trends in summer mean precipitation in the region. The circulation over East Asia shows a weakening trend in the summer monsoon over central-east China.

A regional atmospheric model (RegCM) developed at the International Pacific Research Center (IPRC) is used to investigate the effect of assumed fractional convective entrainment/detrainment rates in the Tiedtke mass flux convective parameterization scheme on the simulated diurnal cycle of precipitation over the Maritime Continent region. Results are compared with observations based on 7 yr of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite measurements. In a control experiment with the default fractional convective entrainment/detrainment rates, the model produces results typical of most other current regional and global atmospheric models, namely a diurnal cycle with precipitation rates over land that peak too early in the day and with an unrealistically large diurnal range. Two sensitivity experiments were conducted in which the fractional entrainment/detrainment rates were increased in the deep and shallow convection parameterizations, respectively. Both of these modifications slightly delay the time of the rainfall-rate peak during the day and reduce the diurnal amplitude of precipitation, thus improving the simulation of precipitation diurnal cycle to some degree, but better results are obtained when the assumed entrainment/detrainment rates for shallow convection are increased to the value consistent with the published results from a large eddy simulation (LES) study. It is shown that increasing the entrainment/detrainment rates would prolong the development and reduce the strength of deep convection, thus delaying the mature phase and reducing the amplitude of the convective precipitation diurnal cycle over the land. In addition to the improvement in the simulation of the precipitation diurnal cycle, convective entrainment/detrainment rates also affect the simulation of temporal variability of daily mean precipitation and the partitioning of stratiform and convective rainfall in the model. The simulation of the observed offshore migration of the diurnal signal is realistic in some regions but is poor in some other regions. This discrepancy seems not to be related to the convective lateral entrainment/detrainment rate but could be due to the insufficient model resolution used in this study that is too coarse to resolve the complex land–sea contrast.

[1] The diurnal cycle of precipitation in the New Guinean region is studied on the basis of satellite observations from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) measurements and regional atmospheric model simulations. The study focuses on the effects of both the land-sea breeze and the orographic forcing on the diurnal evolution of precipitation during the rainy season (January-March) in the region. The 7-year TRMM PR data composite reveals several distinct features of the precipitation diurnal cycle in the region. Precipitation bands develop in the inland coastal region in the late morning to early afternoon and migrate inland from both northeast and southwest sides of the New Guinean Island following the inland penetration of the sea-breeze fronts. A separate convective rainband develops over the central mountain ridge in the early afternoon as a result of the development of the upslope winds due to the elevated surface warming over the mountain in the morning hours. This mountain ridge rainband intensifies and becomes the dominant rainband as the coastal rainbands associated with the sea-breeze fronts weaken during the late afternoon and the early evening. In the midnight to the early morning the rainband over the mountaintop weakens as downslope winds develop and splits into two rainbands, propagating away from the mountain ridge, one to the north and one to the south, and weakens over the lowland some distance away from the coasts. Meanwhile a coastal rainband develops offshore on each side of the island in the late evening to midnight and remains strong through early morning before it migrates offshore. As a result, the rainfall rate peaks in the late afternoon to early evening in most land areas except for in the lowland regions between the coastlines and the mountain where the rainfall rate peaks during the midnight, while the rainfall rate peaks in the late evening to early morning in most coastal regions offshore. The distribution of the diurnal amplitude shows two maxima: one over the mountains and the other in the coastal regions offshore. Convective rainfall rate peaks in the late afternoon while stratiform rainfall rate peaks in the midnight to early morning. The latter dominates the large diurnal amplitude over the mountain areas in the early morning. The above broad features are simulated reasonably well in a control experiment with a high-resolution regional atmospheric model. A sensitivity experiment with the terrain removed is conducted to elucidate the role of orographic forcing in the diurnal evolution of both the local circulation and rainfall patterns. The results show that the orographic forcing affects the diurnal precipitation through three major processes. First, the orography increases the moisture convergence at low levels by blocking and deflecting the mean flow. Second, the upslope winds help initiate convection in the afternoon at the mountaintop. Finally, the deep convection over the mountain acts as a source of propagating gravity waves, which help ini...