General rightsThis document is made available in accordance with publisher policies. Please cite only the published version using the reference above. Full terms of use are available: http://www.bristol.ac.uk/pure/about/ebr-terms ` Robustness despite uncertainty: regional climate data reveal the dominant role of humans in explaining global extinctions of Late Quaternary megafauna AbstractDebate over the late Quaternary megafaunal extinctions has focussed on whether human colonisation or climatic changes were more important, with few extinctions being unambiguously attributable to either. Most analyses have been geographically or taxonomically restricted and the few quantitative global analyses have been limited by coarse temporal resolution or overly simplified climate reconstructions or proxies. We present a global analysis of the causes of these extinctions which uses high-resolution climate reconstructions and explicitly investigates the sensitivity of our results to uncertainty in the palaeological record. Our results show that human colonisation was the dominant driver of megafaunal extinction across the world but that climatic factors were also important. We identify the geographic regions where future research is likely to have the most impact, with our models reliably predicting extinctions across most of the world, with the notable exception of mainland Asia where we fail to explain the apparently low rate of extinction found in the fossil record. Our results are highly robust to uncertainties in the palaeological record, and our main conclusions are unlikely to change qualitatively following new data on extinction or human colonisation dates.

Habitat loss and fragmentation are major threats to biodiversity, yet separating their effects is challenging. We use a multi-trophic, trait-based, and spatially explicit general ecosystem model to examine the independent and synergistic effects of these processes on ecosystem structure. We manipulated habitat by removing plant biomass in varying spatial extents, intensities, and configurations. We found that emergent synergistic interactions of loss and fragmentation are major determinants of ecosystem response, including population declines and trophic pyramid shifts. Furthermore, trait-mediated interactions, such as a disproportionate sensitivity of large-sized organisms to fragmentation, produce significant effects in shaping responses. We also show that top-down regulation mitigates the effects of land use on plant biomass loss, suggesting that models lacking these interactions—including most carbon stock models—may not adequately capture land-use change impacts. Our results have important implications for understanding ecosystem responses to environmental change, and assessing the impacts of habitat fragmentation.

Genotypic trade‐offs are fundamental to the understanding of the evolution of life‐history traits. In particular, the evolution of optimal host defense and the maintenance of variation in defense against infectious disease is thought to be underpinned by such evolutionary trade‐offs. However, empirical demonstrations of these trade‐offs that satisfy the strict assumptions made by theoretical models are rare. Additionally, none of these trade‐offs have yet been shown to be robustly replicable using a variety of different experimental approaches to rule out confounding issues with particular experimental designs. Here, we use inbred isolines as a novel experimental approach to test whether a trade‐off between viral resistance and growth rate in Plodia interpunctella, previously demonstrated by multiple selection experiments, is robust and meets the strict criteria required to underpin theoretical work in this field. Critically, we demonstrate that this trade‐off is both genetic and constitutive. This finding helps support the large body of theory that relies on these assumptions, and makes this trade‐off for resistance unique in being replicated through multiple experimental approaches and definitively shown to be genetic and constitutive.

Summary Whilst most studies reviewing the reliance of global agriculture on insect pollination advocate increasing the ‘supply’ of pollinators (wild or managed) to improve crop yields, there has been little focus on altering a crop's ‘demand’ for pollinators.Parthenocarpy (fruit set in the absence of fertilization) is a trait which can increase fruit quantity and quality from pollinator‐dependent crops by removing the need for pollination.Here we present a meta‐analysis of studies examining the extent and effectiveness of parthenocarpy‐promoting techniques (genetic modification, hormone application and selective breeding) currently being used commercially, or experimentally, on pollinator‐dependent crops in different test environments (no pollination, hand pollination, open pollination).All techniques significantly increased fruit quantity and quality in 18 pollinator‐dependent crop species (not including seed and nut crops as parthenocarpy causes seedlessness). The degree to which plants experienced pollen limitation in the different test environments could not be ascertained, so the absolute effect of parthenocarpy relative to optimal pollination could not be determined. Synthesis and applications. Parthenocarpy has the potential to lower a crop's demand for pollinators, whilst extending current geographic and climatic ranges of production. Thus, growers may wish to use parthenocarpic crop plants, in combination with other environmentally considerate practices, to improve food security and their economic prospects.

Parasites and pathogens impose strong selection on their hosts resulting in the evolution of a range of defence mechanisms. For example, invertebrates possess an effective innate immune system that is capable of fighting infections from a wide variety of