This project investigates the macroepidemiological aspects of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) RNA detection by veterinary diagnostic laboratories (VDLs) for the period 2007 through 2018. Standardized submission data and PRRSV real-time reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) test results from porcine samples were retrieved from four VDLs representing 95% of all swine samples tested in NAHLN laboratories in the US. Anonymized data were retrieved and organized at the case level using SAS (SAS® Version 9.4, SAS® Institute, Inc., Cary, NC) with the use of PROC DATA, PROC MERGE, and PROC SQL scripts. The final aggregated and anonymized dataset comprised of 547,873 unique cases was uploaded to Power Business Intelligence—Power BI® (Microsoft Corporation, Redmond, Washington) to construct dynamic charts. The number of cases tested for PRRSV doubled from 2010 to 2018, with that increase mainly driven by samples typically used for monitoring purposes rather than diagnosis of disease. Apparent seasonal trends for the frequency of PRRSV detection were consistently observed with a higher percentage of positive cases occurring during fall or winter months and lower during summer months, perhaps due to increased testing associated with well-known seasonal occurrence of swine respiratory disease. PRRSV type 2, also known as North American genotype, accounted for 94.76% of all positive cases and was distributed across the US. PRRSV type 1, also known as European genotype, was geographically restricted and accounted for 2.15% of all positive cases. Co-detection of both strains accounted for 3.09% of the positive cases. Both oral fluid and processing fluid samples, had a rapid increase in the number of submissions soon after they were described in 2008 and 2017, respectively, suggesting rapid adoption of these specimens by the US swine industry for PRRSV monitoring in swine populations. As part of this project, a bio-informatics tool defined as Swine Disease Reporting System (SDRS) was developed. This tool has real-time capability to inform the US swine industry on the macroepidemiological aspects of PRRSV detection, and is easily adaptable for other analytes relevant to the swine industry.
We developed a model to predict the cyclic pattern of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) RNA detection by reverse-transcription real-time PCR (RT-rtPCR) from 4 major swine-centric veterinary diagnostic laboratories (VDLs) in the United States and to use historical data to forecast the upcoming year’s weekly percentage of positive submissions and issue outbreak signals when the pattern of detection was not as expected. Standardized submission data and test results were used. Historical data (2015–2017) composed of the weekly percentage of PCR-positive submissions were used to fit a cyclic robust regression model. The findings were used to forecast the expected weekly percentage of PCR-positive submissions, with a 95% confidence interval (CI), for 2018. During 2018, the proportion of PRRSV-positive submissions crossed 95% CI boundaries at week 2, 14–25, and 48. The relatively higher detection on week 2 and 48 were mostly from submissions containing samples from wean-to-market pigs, and for week 14–25 originated mostly from samples from adult/sow farms. There was a recurring yearly pattern of detection, wherein an increased proportion of PRRSV RNA detection in submissions originating from wean-to-finish farms was followed by increased detection in samples from adult/sow farms. Results from the model described herein confirm the seasonal cyclic pattern of PRRSV detection using test results consolidated from 4 VDLs. Wave crests occurred consistently during winter, and wave troughs occurred consistently during the summer months. Our model was able to correctly identify statistically significant outbreak signals in PRRSV RNA detection at 3 instances during 2018.
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