Abstract:In the following, we offer a theoretical approach that attempts to explain (Comments 1-3) why and when the Macaulay duration concept happens to be a good approximation of a bond's price sensitivity. We are concerned with the basic immunization problem with a single liability to be discharged at a future time q. Our idea is to divide the class K of all shifts a(t) of a term structure of interest rates s(t) into many classes and then to find a sufficient and necessary condition a given bond portfolio, dependent on a class of shifts, must satisfy to secure immunization at time q against all shifts a(t) from that class. For this purpose, we introduce the notions of dedicated duration and dedicated convexity. For each class of shifts, we show how to choose from a bond market under consideration a portfolio with maximal dedicated convexity among all immunizing portfolios. We demonstrate that the portfolio yields the maximal unanticipated rate of return and appears to be uniquely determined as a barbell strategy (portfolio) built up with 2 zero-coupon bearing bonds with maximal and respective minimal dedicated durations. Finally, an open problem addressed to researchers performing empirical studies is formulated.Keywords: barbell strategy, convexity, dedicated duration, Macaulay duration, unanticipated rate of return.
IntroductionConsider an investor who possessing C dollars today must achieve an investment goal of L dollars (L > C) q years from now by means of a purchase of appropriately selected bond portfolio (BP). If not successful, he/she will incur a penalty, while achieving more than L dollars will result in practically no rewards. Such investors are called bond immunizers. It is natural to assume that C is the present value of L dollars.By the term structure of interest rates, one understands a schedule of spot interest rates s(t) which is estimated from the yields of all coupon-bearing bonds available on a given debt market M under consideration. The basic immunization problem (BIP) relies on a construction of such a bond portfolio BP with the present value of C dollars that the single liability to pay L dollars (L is the future value of C) q years from now will be discharged by means of the inflows c(t) generated by portfolio BP, no matter what shocks/shifts a(t) of s(t) will occur.The new term structure is always of the form:with a(t) standing for a shift / shock of our term structure s(t), which satisfies Assumption 1 only. The function s(t) can exhibit various behaviors, for example, it can be flat, rising, declining, humped, or twisted. The classical results refer to flat shifts a(t) and flat term structures s(t), and they go back as far as to the pioneering work of Macaulay (1938), Redington (1952), andFisher (1971).In this paper, we approach the BIP by dividing the set K of all possibly shits a(t) into infinitely many classes K v and then solve BIP for each of these classes separately, with durations D v accordingly tailored to the specifics of the class K v . Similar to Zheng in (2002) and (20...