Runoff estimation is a key component in various hydrological considerations. Estimation of storm runoff is especially important for the effective design of hydraulic and road structures, for the fl ood fl ow management, as well as for the analysis of land use changes, i.e. urbanization or low impact development of urban areas. The curve number (CN) method, developed by Soil Conservation Service (SCS) of the U.S. Department of Agriculture for predicting the fl ood runoff depth from ungauged catchments, has been in continuous use for ca. 60 years. This method has not been extensively tested in Poland, especially in small urban catchments, because of lack of data. In this study, 39 rainfall-runoff events, collected during four years (2009)(2010)(2011)(2012) in a small (A=28.7 km 2 ), urban catchment of Służew Creek in southwest part of Warsaw were used, with the aim of determining the CNs and to check its applicability to ungauged urban areas. The parameters CN, estimated empirically, vary from 65.1 to 95.0, decreasing with rainfall size and, when sorted rainfall and runoff separately, reaching the value from 67 to 74 for large rainfall events.

The Curve Number method is one of the most commonly applied methods to describe the relationship between the direct runoff and storm rainfall depth. Due to its popularity and simplicity, it has been studied extensively. Less attention has been given to the dimensionless initial abstraction ratio, which is crucial for an accurate direct runoff estimation with the Curve Number. This ratio is most often assumed to be equal to 0.20, which was originally proposed by the method’s developers. In this work, storm events recorded in the years 2009–2017 in two small Polish catchments of different land use types (urban and agroforested) were analyzed for variability in the initial abstraction ratio across events, seasons, and land use type. Our results showed that: (i) estimated initial abstraction ratios varied between storm events and seasons, and were most often lower than the original value of 0.20; (ii) for large events, the initial abstraction ratio in the catchment approaches a constant value after the rainfall depth exceeds a certain threshold value. Thus, when using the Soil Conservation Service-Curve Number (SCS-CN) method, the initial abstraction ratio should be locally verified, and the conditions for the application of the suggested value of 0.20 should be established.

Abstract:River runoff is an important indicator of environmental changes, which usually include climate and/or land use changes, and is also the basis of catchment water management. This study presents results of monitoring and analysis of 48-year precipitation and runoff from a small agricultural catchment located in central Poland. No land use changes in that period have been reported. Mean monthly distributions of precipitation and runoff for the long-term period showed that July was the wettest month in respect of precipitation and a drier one in respect of runoff, averaging 12.9% and 5.2% of their annual values, respectively. To evaluate the trend of three annual hydrometeorological parameters, i.e. precipitation, runoff and runoff coefficient, the Mann-Kendall test was applied. It indicated no trend in respect of precipitation, and decreasing trends of runoff and runoff coefficient at a 95% level of significance. Linear approximation of the annual runoff values indicated a decrease in runoff of ca. 1.2 mm per year for the analysed period. A few other functions were also used for better approximation of runoff data.

Mulches have extraordinary potential in reducing surface runoff, increasing infiltration of water into the soil and decreasing soil erosion. The straw mulches as a biological material, has the ability to be a significant physical barrier against the impact of raindrops and reduce the detachment of soil aggregates. The present study is an attempt to determine the efficiency of straw mulch as conservation treatment in changes in the splash erosion, time-to-runoff, runoff coefficient, infiltration coefficient, time-to-drainage, drainage coefficient, sediment concentration and soil loss. The laboratory experiments have been conducted for sandy-loam soil taken from deforested area, about 15 km of Warsaw west, Poland under lab conditions with simulated rainfall intensities of 60 and 120 mmh–1, in 4 soil moistures of 12, 25, 33 and 40% and the slope of 9%. Compared with bare treatments, results of straw mulch application showed the significant conservation effects on splash erosion, runoff coefficient, sediment concentration and soil loss and significant enhancement effects on infiltration and drainage. The results of Spearman-Rho correlation showed the significant (p < 0.05) correlation with r = –0.873, 0.873, 0.878 and 0.764 between rainfall intensity and drainage coefficient, downstream splash, sediment concentration and soil loss and with r = –0.976, 0.927 and –0.927 between initial soil moisture content and time-to-runoff, runoff coefficient and infiltration coefficient, respectively.

The aims of this study are: i) to better understand the coupled interactions between land use changes, climate change and the aquatic ecosystem in a small agricultural catchment (<100 km2) with a long observation history (1963–2018) and a known land use history, and ii) to test available approaches to separate land use and climate change impacts on water resources in such a small catchment. The pre- and post-change periods have been separated based on change points and the known land use history. Next, conceptual and analytical approaches were applied to quantify and to distinguish between the impacts of climate and land use changes on annual runoff for these two periods. Over the observation period, both land use changes (increase in forest areas) as well as climate change (a temperature rise and a decrease in annual precipitation) occurred. These changes contributed to a decrease in the average annual runoff by 51.9 mm (49% of the long-term average) during the observation period. The quantified contributions of climate and land use changes to the decrease in the mean annual runoff amount to between 60% and 80% and between 40% and 20%, respectively. (i) The results obtained from different methods were consistent - a change in runoff was primarily caused by shifts in climatic variables. (ii) However, the quantified contributions varied depending on the method applied and the form of the Budyko curve. (iii) Thus, special care should be taken in relation to the selection of the Budyko curve for quantifying these changes. (iv) Knowledge of the water deficit sources can result in better planning of water resources management in such small catchments.